It has been 28 years since Eritrea had the misfortune of being ruled by one single party. Many countries that argued a single party is necessary to expedite development were able to deliver on their promise: China, South Korea, Singapore to mention a few.  Then there are countries like Eritrea that have had the tyranny of one party states (in our case, a one man state) who have not only NOT developed but regressed.  This article will document the magnitude of the regression.

When the EPLF stormed into Eritrea 28 years ago, our population was reported to be 2.5 million.  Now, all these years later, it is 3.4 million.  That is: it has been growing at 1.1% and it will take it, at this rate,  63 years to double.  An aside: South Korea is smaller and it has a population of 50 million.  This emptying out of Eritrea was the result of policies pursued by the predatory government which have resulted in wars, economic stagnation and exodus.  The exodus rate (net migration) of Eritreans is one of the highest, if not the highest, in the world.  This is an extremely dangerous phenomenon as Bulgarians and Romanians will testify.

Perversely, this population collapse has given the PFDJ some bragging rights.  After all, statistics is nothing more than a numerator over a denominator and there are two ways to affect it: increase the numerator or decrease the denominator.  The PFDJ is a Denominator Decreasing Demon.  For example, the PFDJ can look at rural electrification and say, hey, look: it is 39.3% for Eritrea and 23.2% for sub-Saharan Africa so hooray for us.  Or as President Isaias Afwerki once told an interviewer: “We are number 1 in Africa.”  But consider: this percent is “people living in rural areas with access to electricity, expressed as percentage of total rural population.”  Even if a government does NOTHING to improve the number of people living with access to electricity, and all it does is reduce the total rural population (as it has, for 15 years), it can claim it made dramatic improvements.  It also can claim credit for work done by the Catholic Church of Eritrea which had a big hand in electrifying rural Eritrea for its social services centers.

Keep this population collapse across all demographic groups when you hear of government propaganda in healthcare services it provides.

Moreover, the PFDJ is fond of comparing Eritrea 2018 with Eritrea 1990 when the true measure should be with Sub-Saharan Africa 2018.  An absolute number given (for example life-expectancy in Eritrea in 2018) or percentage growth means nothing unless it is comparison with Eritrea’s peer group: Sub-Saharan Africa.

When you do that, the numbers and percentages reported (except in vaccination rates) are abysmal.  Whether it is in the field of healthcare (hospital beds per 10,000 people);  education (out-of-school rates, pupil-teacher ratio, teachers trained to teach per 10,000 population); nutrition (underweight, stunting, wasting); children and female quality of life (child marriage, genital mutilation, wife beating); access to water & sanitation (access to improved drinking water sources and sanitation sources); allocation of funds to health, education and social protection services; women’s empowerment; GDP/capita; development assistance/capita… the government of Eritrea has failed the people miserably.

Here’s the most telling data: The GDP/capita for sub-Saharan Africa is only $1,625.  The GDP/capita for the Least Developed Countries is only $1,114.  This is dreadful and it means it will take sub-Saharan Africa the Least Developed Countries and will take us a very long time to even catch up to Central Asia, never mind far East Asia, never mind Western Europe or North America.   BUT.  This is the most damning number of PFDJ: Eritrea’s GDP is $811.  That is HALF of sub-Saharan Africa.   This alone should result in the government resigning for its failure.  It is this one that has resulted in the people having no confidence on the regime.  But the government has not once taken responsibility for its failures, as it is constantly coming up with new parties–US hegemony, Weyane, Weyto, Whinos–to blame for its failures.  And as long as it does that (and its DNA indicates it will), there is no hope that things will change as long as this group of nincompoops and nitwits are in charge of Eritrea.

The Ethio-Eritrean rapprochement is in its second year. The initial optimism has faded because the Eritrean regime has gone back to its old habit again; and old habits die hard. The border remains closed (the Eritrean government closed it!) without any explanation from either side. Trade has halted at the borders and even Ethiopian merchant ships stopped calling at the Massawa port. They had resumed visiting Massawa and Asseb, after almost twenty years, last year. The two countries may have resumed bilateral relations, but the agreements are still mysterious. When will the Ethiopian government totally lose its patience and begin talking openly in public about the Isaias regime’s belligerent, quarrelsome and mysterious behavior? There’s no indication as of yet.

In the meantime, little has changed for the vast majority of the Eritrean people. Those who can afford it, a small minority and the Diaspora supporters of the regime, travel to Addis Ababa and elsewhere. Those who cannot legally travel, flee the country to Ethiopia or Sudan. Of course, the regime has gotten a respite from its 20 years of isolation and is breathing easily again, thanks to PM Abiy Ahmed who rescued it. Will Abiy Ahmed, the Nobel laureate, use his considerable influence to push his newly found friend, the dictator Isaias Afwerki in Eritrea, to open up the borders again? There are no indications the prime minister is willing to do so.

What do the Eritrean people in and out of the country demand at this moment in history?

The regime fears like a plague any kind of organizing by the people and especially the opposition. They will do anything—from sowing discord by region or religion, sending their spies as fake opposition elements to disrupt and sow doubts in the minds of those seeking change. We need to always be mindful of the fact that they will try to have “their” people in any meeting, conference, organization, etc. no matter how insignificant.  We need to be mindful of their disinformation campaign, which may not be readily visible sometimes, but is always working against any opposition to the regime. The regime spends annually an inordinate amount of money (estimated to be in the millions of dollars) to control the narrative and to frustrate and intimidate the opposition. That’s a lot of money given the country’s economic reality. Therefore, the opposition needs to do just three things: (1) organize, (2) organize, and (3) organize.

Civil Society 

A civil society is a society considered a community of citizens linked by common interests and collective activity. Civil society is comprised of groups and organizations of non-for-profits working in the interest of citizens outside government. It also includes social movements, grassroots organizations and online networks and communities. Civil society encompasses all forms of social action carried out by individuals or groups who are not connected to the state. While some say Civil Society can be organized or not organized, others define Civil Society as organized and organic social and cultural relations existing in the space between the state, business, and family, which builds on indigenous and external knowledge, values, traditions, and principles to foster collaboration and achievement of specific goals by and among citizens and other stakeholders (1).

Civil society includes academia, activist groups, online groups and activists (Yiakl, etc.), community foundations or community organizations, charities, etc. Civil society works to limit power of the State and to increase political participation. We already have many such civil society organizations. We must encourage people to create more civil society groups (such as engineers, lawyers, doctors, nurses, teachers, journalists, etc.) and/or, preferably, join existing ones. It’s important in democracy to have such civil society that can advocate for reforms. Civil Society also includes radio, television or print media (AssennaTV, EriSat, Arena, etc.) and youth groups or clubs.

Civil society has an important role to play in society for development of dialogue as it brings communities together for collective action, mobilizing society to articulate demands and bring concerns, at local,  regional, national, and international levels. Other roles include advocacy and campaigning, and watchdog (monitoring government compliance with human rights issues). Civil society play a great role in building active citizenship, motivating civic engagement at the local, regional or national levels (2).

Civil Society’s role in advocacy cannot be exaggerated. In the Eritrean context, advocacy requires focusing on influencing the influencers such as international organizations (UN and its multiple organizations UNHCR, UNICEF, and other organizations such as Oxfam, etc.), well known journalists, print and broadcast media, and the Ethiopian government and its many political parties. Advocacy includes raising awareness of issues, giving a voice to the marginalized, and agitating for change. These and other roles can be played by communities such as the Eritrean Diaspora throughout the world.

Furthermore, Eritrean Diaspora civil societies should encourage political and civil organizations to have a democratically elected leadership. In other words, develop a democratic culture and abide by it in all formal organizational works.

Eritrean civil societies should also not be afraid to actively and openly discourage the Eritrean youth from fleeing the country. Enough of the fear of dictatorial regime! Enough of the fear of those of us in Diaspora being called hypocrites! This is about the future of Eritrea! We must encourage them to stay home and fight the regime from within. Because, ultimately, change will have to come from within the country. Just like the Eritrean people created the Fronts to fight for independence, the Eritrean people must struggle for the rule of law and democracy from within the country.  There is no other alternative.

Finally, one of the main goals of the Diaspora Eritrean civil society should be reconciliation. Reconciliation amongst all opposition groups. There is still too much resentment and mistrust, after all these years. We need to at least acknowledge the hurtful legacy of the Eritrean civil war between the legacy Fronts (mainly, ELF and the EPLF), the disinformation and defamation campaigns that have been and still being waged by both sides but particularly by the latter long after independence of the country. In order to create a unified opposition that would have the trust of each other, much effort by civil society groups must be exerted for reconciliation whatever form that reconciliation would take. The world-wide Yiakl movement, the existing civil society organizations and professional groups such as the Eritrean Law Society, which all undoubtedly will play important roles in the future of the country, should find a way to work together. It is crucial also that the global Yiakl movement along with other civil society organizations, should eventually be able to make their vision, mission, and the goals and objectives of our struggle crystal clear, and come together, and organize, organize and organize, in order to take the usurpers in Eritrea, Isaias Afwerki and his dictatorial regime, out!

Notes:
(1) K4D, Rachel Cooper, University of Birmingham, October 2018, What’s Civil Society, Its Role and Value.
(2) VanDyck, 2017.
(3) CSIS, Concept and Definition of Civil Society and Sustainability.

Short answer: it doesn’t matter because the Nobel Peace Prize continues to be less and less relevant.  Also, who else are they going to give it to: Isaias?

Longer answer:

The Norwegian Nobel Committee named Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed its 2019 Nobel Peace Prize Winner. (Or, as we Habesha call it: “noble piece price.”) The question is the same one asked of every Prize Winner, regardless of the category: does s/he deserve it?  Here are the cases for and against, and where this website stands (as if anyone asked.)

The Case Against Abiy

Ever since he burst on the scene in early 2018, Abiy Ahmed has often betrayed a troubling je ne sais pas : under the very polished, very scripted and rehearsed suit is emptiness.  A man who believes in nothing, except in some messianic prophecy that he is destined to be Ethiopia’s Prime Minister.  He has that prosperity televangelist, that pull-yourself-up-by-your-bootstraps motivational speaker fakery that, you think, is all sizzle no steak.  When the lights are out, there is nothing there.  He is a born Number 2, which makes him an easy prey for any influencer: US ambassador to Ethiopia, Isaias Afwerki, Berhanu Negga, or whoever handed him the last book from Oprah’s Book Club or the Spark Notes of Communism (Mark, Stalin yemibal sewye, etc.) That, for a man of peace, he appears to be tone-deaf about death and suffering and displacement or the people who cause it–Isaias Afwerki, for example.  And the danger is, under the wrong tutelage, he can be another authoritarian because the whiny people forced him to be:

Abiy Ahmed Being Corruped By Isaias Afwerki? from saay on Vimeo.

The Case for Abiy 

The rationale the Norwegian Nobel Committee gave for awarding him was: “for his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation, and in particular for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighbouring Eritrea. The prize is also meant to recognise all the stakeholders working for peace and reconciliation in Ethiopia and in the East and Northeast African regions….. No doubt some people will think this year’s prize is being awarded too early. The Norwegian Nobel Committee believes it is now that Abiy Ahmed’s efforts deserve recognition and need encouragement”. [Emphasis added]

Team Lemma or not, it was Abiy who gets the credit for breaking Ethiopia’s 20 year belligerence on its peace treaty with Eritrea; it was Abiy who freed thousands of Ethiopian prisoners; ended Ethiopia’s arbitrary Anti-Terrorism Proclamation (ATP); elevated women-in-power to 50% of Ethiopia; declared Ethiopia-under-TPLF/EPRDF a “terrorist state”; embraced all exiled opposition; reduced Ethiopia’s journalist prisoner population to zero, and reconciled the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahdo Church with itself.

Can things go off the rails?  Sure! But the Committee always rewards initiatives and partners in the initiative, and not necessarily fruition of the initiatives.  For example, a few years ago, it awarded the president of Colombia the Nobel Peace Prize for ending the country’s 50-year-long civil war. But check any week’s news and you will learn that the civil war can break out any time because many Colombians don’t think that the peace agreement brought any change. Similarly, it gave the award to Aung San Suii Kyi (initiative), and now she is defending herself on charges of genocide (results.)

But there is something about Abiy, some New Age-y thing the Committee fell in love with. I have asked my Ethiopian friends to give me the most representative video of Abiy at his best and this is the one that @Natberh and @AmdeBrahan sent to me.  It was the precursor to “Mark” and “Stalin Yemibal Sewye” with a lot of pseudoscience.  So blame them, not me.

Nobel, Person of The Year, Etc

The symbolic awards that the Norwegian Nobel Committee gives for Peace are based more on popularity and feel-goody public relations than cold, hard logical decisions.  Remember, they gave Obama a Nobel Peace Prize because he sounded peaceful and got all the hippies happy (initiative) and not because he flew fewer drone flights bombing innocent civilians (results).  He droned a lot more than the man they would never consider: George W Bush.   Thus, in a few years, the Nobel Peace Prize will eventually be no different than Time Magazine’s “Person of the Year”: once prestigious, now irrelevant. Thus, despite Abiy Ahmed’s hopes that Africa would be proud of him for winning the Nobel, speaking for one African, I consider the Peace Prize simply an exercise in public relations, reflecting the very New Age values of the Committee (look at all award winners in the past 10 years.)  In the end, Abiy’s term in Ethiopia will be judged on his ability to return the uprooted to their homes; to strengthen institutions of justice and democracy;  to lift his people out of poverty and to be a force for good in the region, including Eritrea.  And in that regard, because he is a Born Number Two, it is unclear whether he will be strongly influenced by the sadist he affectionately calls “Issu” and drift towards authoritarianism and centralization or pursue the liberalization of Ethiopia.

As for us Eritreans, well, we can expect Abiy Ahmed (in his acceptance speech) to scratch his nails on the blackboard and annoy us by saying some flattering things about our tormenter Isaias Afwerki, more evidence about his tone-deafness.  But it is futile because the world knows, Eritreans know that Isaias Afwerki is a spent force, who will be remembered as one of the most brutal, inhumane and anti-peace people in Africa.    If Abiy needs a reminder of that, all he has to do is compare the changes Ethiopia experienced under his premiership with the regression Eritrea is experiencing under Isaias Afwerki in the same period. A good primer is an article which appeared here last year: 2018: A Year of Dazzling Reforms & Stifling Standstill  Part 1 and Part 2.   Spoiler alert: the dazzling reforms are Ethiopia under Abiy and the stifling standstill are Eritrea under Isaias.

A group of musicians headed to Eritrea last week to charm Eritreans with their songs. I am not sure if dancing some unresolved outstanding issues away is something that should be given a priority, but what do I know? That’s why I am not in charge, I guess…

The group initially consisted of members of one of the oldest musical institutions in Ethiopia. “The Ethiopian National Theater” performers, Dawit Tsige the winner of “Balageru” (the Ethiopian version of “Shingrewa”) and some other ‘B’ listed singers. Except, of course, the legendary Hamelmal Abate and Sileshi Demisse, a former Los Angeles area folk songs radio host, who once managed to bring Stevie Wonder on his Radio Show in the eighties. He’s an author, singer, social justice activist all around good guy, who Ethiopians affectionately call “Gash Abera Mola”, after one of his songs with comical lyrics.

To be fair, it was still a much better group assembled than the similar group of largely old men that the Eritrean government had sent to Ethiopia some ten months ago. They came with war songs and screamed in empty concert halls. I asked why a country that has Jemal Romedan, Robel Michael, Korchach…would send us these senior citizens? I was told that all of these young talents are unavailable because they have been exiled. But, I digress.

On Monday, when the group arrived, the government media had touted it as one of the dividends of the “peace process”. Their arrival was a leading news on “Eri TV”– the one and only media outlet readily available to Eritreans, especially to those, who couldn’t afford to install satellite dishes.

I am still having a very difficult time to understand how largely unknown and some “has been” singers would be symbols of the ‘peace dividend’ that got even my Prime Minister a Nobel Peace Prize. But….ok..fine..whatever…

Among the arrivals, many ‘hip Asmarinos’ were expecting some special guests. Singers they can relate to. Singers they really want to dance with. Singers they were told definitely would be there.

They were told that the continentally-acclaimed, (to some extent international) acclaimed Ethiopian rockers “Jano Band’ would be there. But, alas. They were not among the arrivals. So, Asmarinos just figured that the talk of coming of their favorite band is just ‘bado seleste‘ (a state concocted rumor) to get them excited. They got used to such rumors. They don’t get fooled by them anymore. But just in case, some Asmarinos went to the nearest internet cafe, where there’s a good wifi, and checked Jano Band’s Facebook page. There was a post that unambiguously declared they will be in Asmara. It doesn’t say, when. It just says ‘we will be in Asmara’.

Asmarinos waited for 24 hours, but Jano Band still didn’t show up. The other musical group’s show started in Keren without them. I have a friend who told me that young Asmarinos were debating the reasons that kept their favorite band delayed, mounting scenarios and conspiracy theories.

Their wait was over, 48 hours later. Another facebook page post, accompanied by couple of pictures from Jano Band confirmed to them that they in fact arrived in Asmara. Asmarinos would have loved to welcome them at the airport, with a reception that a rock band deserves from their fans. Still, they were happy they get to see their favorite band.

The Show (1): Keren

The show in Keren was unremarkable. Thousands of such kinds of shows have been held in Ethiopia and Eritrea. Old popular songs covered by mediocre singers, a subpar, but good natured comedian attempting to make people laugh for about ten minutes with some stale impressions, an MC, who murdered Tigrigna in broad daylight and tried some awkward jokes (Sorry Gash Abera Mola) That was it. Then It was over.

The Show (2): Massawa

Watching it on TV, the weather seems really pleasant. However, the faces of the audience (especially the ones seating in the front) were very grim. I saw some elder women who looked like they’d rather be anywhere but there. Then a gentleman came on stage and said the city’s mayor is about to speak to open the show. Then, another gentleman came and started to speak with a pleasantly-accented Amharic. I was thinking “wow Massawa’s mayor speaks Amharic well”.

I was wrong. That wasn’t the Mayor. He was just introducing the Mayor in Amharic. Then, the Mayor came up. Unlike most speechifying politicians like to do, his speech was short. I was relieved.

Wait…hold on…Another gentleman was coming to the stage.

Oh…He just repeated what the mayor said word for word in Amharic. No. It was not the previous guy with a cute Amharic accent. This one is different. I was also thinking “..why did they not use the previous guy?..I liked him…or did they just want to show off they have several people who speak Amharic in Massawa?..”

Ok..fine..now let’s go to the show..

The show started! Having learned from Keren, the performers changed their dancing numbers and tweaked the performance a bit. Hamelmal Abate walked to where the people sat, drawing them out to dance with her, to the delight of the crowd. The band played songs that were more familiar to the crowd. Songs that were popular some 30 or 35 years ago. Even the droopy-faced old men were smiling and dancing.

Then, Gash Abera Mola came out and told the audience that Jano Band was preparing for this so hard.

He requested the audience to stay there very long into the night, because Jano’s performance might take all night.

That announcement seemed to excite the few young people and made the old ones curious about these Jano Band thingy.

At about 10:30 PM local time, Jano started to perform.

Immediately, they got everybody on their feet. They had their signature funky outfit and they were as energetic as ever.

For about 48 minutes, they played several of their hit songs.

Then, it was time to play the fast-paced, loud rock sound song from their previous Album ይነጋል (It will dawn).

The audience went wild! Started to demand more and Jano kept promising more.

While the transitional intro to another song was playing, the co-lead singer Hailu Amerga was told they need to wrap it up. He awkwardly told the audience that was their last song. The confused audience started to protest.

The lead guitarist kept playing. The band leader and the co-lead singer Dibekulu Tafesse was heard saying to the guitarist “..Sami, stop playing. Stop it. Can’t you hear he’s telling us to stop..”.

The audience was still not convinced. Then, the band leader turned to the people and said “…We wanted to continue playing. We really did. But we were told that our time is over..” When the people continue to protest, he gestured in the direction of the folks who told him to stop, as in to say “..it’s them. not us..” during which a gentleman (who no doubt has some sort of authority) with a firm commanding voice went on to the stage and stared down the people telling them “..The night is over, please go home..”

That was such a demonstration of how the Eritrean government treats its people, particularly its youth. I witnessed that with a heavy (a little bit of angry) heart. I felt the oppression for them.

I was just watching that on TV. I am sure, my fellow Ethiopians, who were there, including members of Jano Band noticed up close, the cruelty and fascistic tendency of those, who are in charge of Eritrea.

The Show (3): Asmara

48 hours later, it was Asmara’s turn. At this point, I wasn’t expecting anything new. Except, maybe Jano Band completing the show they were forced to stop in Massawa.

There were some surprises in Asmara, though.

For some reason, the Eritrean government flew in some “star power” from Addis Ababa late Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

Three very popular female artists. Tsedeniya G/Markos, an AFRIMA award winner who had her song ‘Hilme’ became a soundtrack for some French Mafia movie; Rahel Getu, a former band member of ‘Yegna’ a wildly popular female teenagers band that managed to get funding from UK government and raised controversy why it should be helped by UK taxpayers money in Westminster; and Betty G. (Biruktawit Getahun) a young singer, who performed at Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Nobel awarding ceremony in Oslo.

As expected, their hastily arranged appearance made their performance with a musical band that they met only few hours ago, was atrocious. To see professionally acclaimed singers singing off-key like that is very cringe-inducing.

The Cinema Roma show in Asmara had the most enthusiastic audience. Dawit Tsige and Hamelmal Abate seemed to have the highest number of fans, until Jano Band came out. The format of the show was a bit different from Keren and Massawa. There was a lot of speechifying of politicians, exchanging gifts and routine platitudes….

For almost the entire show, Gash Abera Mola was replaced by a new female MC. (I guess he run out of awkward jokes)

The show was condensed with many routines we saw in Keren and Massawa cut out. Yet, the audience seemed to enjoy it.

When it was time for Jano Band to arrive, Asmarinos, who did not get a chance to welcome their favorite band at the airport welcomed them with the loudest cheers and whistles.

There was something strange though. Jano, were not themselves. They were clad with black business suit and the most animated of the group, Hailu Amerga, had a necktie on. It’s mostly unheard of for a Rock Band lead singer to have a business suit on, as if he’s about to have his first interview for a position of a junior accountant.

At some point, he just couldn’t take it. He shouted, “..this necktie is making me so much uncomfortable..” and took it off and threw it away.

In their performances, unlike their old self, they just run through the songs. When they have one song left to play, they informed their audiences they have only one song left to play.

It seems they didn’t want the awkward encounter they had with authorities in Massawa to be repeated in Asmara.

Their last song was Darign. A song many enjoy its heavy dramatic sound from the singer and her bandmates synchronized body movements.

However, the band seemed they were not in the mood to do that.

When Hewan, (the female band member, who was singing the song and the only Tigrigna speaking singer in the band) finishing up and was giving her farewells, some young men approached her seemingly asking her a question.

She’s heard saying in Tigrigna “..What? Tell me, honey what would you like me to do?..”  Then, she turned around asked the band to tone down the noise to have a clear understanding to what the young fellows want.

She conversed with them in inaudible Tigrigna and said “..Ok…we’ll do that..we’ll dance..one more time..”

By that time, her bandmates were walking towards backstage. She called each of her colleagues back, annunciate, each of their names (as in introducing them to the audience) and performed the synchronized dance, exactly as it appeared on their music video on youtube, to the delight of the crowd.

It was a treat for them.

That moment made the band leader, DibeKulu Tafesse, make an impromptu speech promising to come back to Asmara another time, with a heartfelt goodbye.

For me, to watch that was both heartwarming and heartbreaking. It made me think of Eritrean youth yearning for freedom.

Upon their return to Addis Ababa, Jano Band Manager explained to BBC Amharic and Tigrigna language services about what happened in Massawa. He admitted that they were told to stop, but disputed the reason.

He had these three explanations,

1) The performers who did their show ahead of them ate up their time.

2) They were told the noise was too loud: people who were sleeping could be disturbed.

3)The main source of electricity is generators in Eritrea, so it was going on and off.

I honestly found these explanations to be mighty strange.

1) I distinctly recall the MC Gash Abera Mola requesting the audiences to stay up all night, because Jano wants to play all night long. So, does that mean he didn’t know that much of the time that was allotted to them was ate up?

2) On a Friday night, with pleasant weather, folks who live on a harbor of one of the most pristine beaches on earth go to bed that early and demand noise ordinance? I doubt it.

3) The fact that it seems everything, even important events such as this run by electricity, sourced from generators seems to confirm what many say about the serious shortage of electricity in Eritrea.

However, I do understand their polite, non-confrontational explanation of the behavior of their hosts. They created a bond with the general public, they probably did not want to sever that by pushing back hard on the hostage takers that are the Eritrean government and lose access forever. At the same time, they told few bits of truths that helps to sneak a peak at a closed nation.

Unchain the Eritrean youth.

Naty Berhane Yifru

Of all the words that have been used to describe the Ethio-Eritrean peace deal, surprising is the one that I agree the most with, however what surprises me isn’t necessarily what many have been surprised by. I didn’t believe that DIA [Dictator Isaias Afwerki] would agree to it but I wasn’t surprised that he did. I was surprised that no one was alarmed by his open declaration of why he did it. He openly claimed that it was now ‘game over’ for TPLF [Tigray People’s Liberation Front] and hence it was appropriate to start talking to Ethiopia. I was surprised because that was the precise mentality that caused him to engage in the war of 1998 in the first place. DIA miscalculated that the TPLF led EPRDF [Eritrean People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, umbrella for ruling coalition) was so unpopular and wouldn’t get any support for war with Eritrea from fellow Ethiopians, 20 years on ‘peace’ was accepted for the same reason…

Not surprisingly this ‘peace’ has been going round and round in circles unable to go anywhere. For the jubilation that was on display on the streets of both capitals no one can be blamed for thinking this is the most phenomenal thing to have ever happened in our horn of plenty (misery) and hence a Nobel Peace Prize (no less!). I think the reason for this can be enshrined in two critical sayings, one in Amharic and one in Tigrigna that aptly capture the mentality that seems to be driving this ‘peace’ building effort.  Before I go into these I will briefly say where I don’t see the peace accord going and why.

The peace accord hasn’t resulted in restoration of normalcy in Eritrea and that is blatantly obvious and has resulted in all sorts of awkwardness when according the peace accord a Peace prize. People who are interested in Eritrea (including us Eritreans) are divided into two. Those who believe there is peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea and those who wonder where the much heralded peace is. If you believe there is still no peace then you have many problems, but squaring circles isn’t one of them. If, however you think there is peace then you have many questions with no answers or at least questions that can only be answered by those who can also answer the question ‘how long is a piece of string?’.

A year and a half on the peace accord hasn’t resulted in the restoration of ‘normal’ relationships with Ethiopia either (and no: an incoherent IA trying prancing about in Ethiopia every so often is not progress either!) …the border is shut, there are no formal trade links, the security arrangements are not clear, currency abnormalities are too obvious… the terms of the peace deal continue to be opaque…there are no implementation committees, cross-border commissions and institutions actualising the much heralded affair! More crucially everyone avoids talking about the very flash points that triggered one of the deadliest wars that our world has ever seen.

I also would like to mention where the peace deal is also not going… people-to-people-relationships… because all-of-the-people-to-all-of-the-people is not currently possible and that brings me to the mentality that is driving the respective leaders and the two sayings I talked about earlier.

Let me start with the easier one of the two, this one I think fits the approach of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and maybe even most Ethiopians seem to be using as a guide to the relationship with Eritrea: የትም ፍጪው ዱቀቱን አምጪው loose translation could be something like who cares when the mill is as long as it results in flour. Not too dissimilar to ‘the end justifies the means’. It seems that neither Dr Abiy nor many Ethiopians care how the peace with Eritrea is reached; this nonchalance causes them to praise Isaias Afwerki even as they deplore the very actions perpetrated by him (if/when perpetrated elsewhere), it seems that the commitment to justice and fairness isn’t a principled stand and ‘unfair’ is only so, when it is against those that matter to them (in other words not Eritreans)… the problem is you can’t sell yourself to the devil and win peace… it really is that simple and the proof of the pudding is the fact that the big words and massive gestures and loud cheers of 18 months ago are faint distant memories with only faint impact. The quieter cheers and bigger gestures from last week will go the same way too. In short in its current format the peace deal will not progress beyond the easy reach fruits that happened overnight in the summer of 2018.  Pop singers crisscrossing the airways and airwaves will not translate to student exchanges across universities because we in Eritrea don’t have universities… we will not see journalists of the free press crisscrossing to make documentaries comparing and contrasting peace dividend because Eritrea doesn’t have any press (other than propaganda press), neither will we see parliamentarians cross fertilising solutions to common difficulties because, in Eritrea, Parliament disbanded many, many, many moons back at the start of 2002! And we certainly won’t see civil society groups and human rights organisations across the two nations sit together to discuss monitoring of the peace process (you have already guessed why so save me from the anguish of spelling the sorry state in Eritrea out!)… In short Isaias Afwerki has nothing to offer to effect peace and prosperity!

Basically all of the above begs the question why the hell Isaias Afwerki accepted ‘peace’? Well, I have the answer in the form of an Eritrean saying that is difficult to translate ክልተ ጎራሓት ሓሙኽሽቲ ስንቆም. Now I have already said it is difficult to translate succinctly, so you will have to bear with me. The story goes that two connivers agreed to travel together (or meet on a journey) and the traditional sanction dictates that they share the provisions they have… so they would normally start consuming the food one brings and progress to the other. Both would assume that the other one would carry similar quality and quantity of provisions, however these being connivers of similar tilt they connive to outsmart the other by carrying ash instead of food in their sack. The idea was that they would consume the food brought by the other while the one whose food is being consumed thinks that there will be similar provision in the other sack, the trouble, however, is that they both think the same and hence their two sacks are full of ash (empty promises) and no food! DIA thought that the provision in Abiy’s sack was enough to see them through the journey and he’d get whatever he wanted as long as he goes along carrying a promising looking sack. Sadly for the peoples of both countries, both leaders had nothing more than empty promises and nice words in their sacks and now there is nothing other than the same empty words…

If I had a penny for every time I was told that Isaias Afwerki is an Eritrean problem… or rather a problem for Eritreans, I would be spending the winter somewhere nice and warm! This would be true if Eritreans hadn’t established our case for his crimes against humanity… these allegations make him a problem for all of humanity (as the Nobel Peace Prize Committee found) and particularly for those who want to enter into deals with him and still come out smelling like roses…we in Eritrea are not asking Abiy or anyone else to deal with Isaias for us… we are simply pointing out that the only way to peace is peace!

Isaias Afwerki accepted the peace deal as he thought it gained him victory over people he considers his arch enemies (TPLF) and he will not settle for anything less…he is used to locking his enemies in dungeons to never be heard from again he even erases them from video footages and arrests their underage children and elderly parents for good measure… he will not be satisfied unless his vengeance is satisfied and then more and he doesn’t care what happens in the process… (I present the social, economic and political status of Eritrea as a case in example)…

Bottom line is… Ethio-Eritrean peace will not be realised whilst Issias Afwerki is intact, unless Ethiopians break their country apart to prove to him that it indeed is ‘game over for TPLF’… I know there are many Ethiopians who think that, that is not a bad thing at all, but they ought to remember that this effectively means civil war in Ethiopia to satisfy Isaias Afwerki to actualise peace with Eritrea… that in a nutshell is what I mean about the means to an end…

It really is time to rethink the Ethio-Eritrean peace deal… let’s start the journey again: yes to peace but not by any means… If Ethiopians continue to only be interested in the end result they will soon find that IA has nothing but ash in his sack and not just any ash but the rubble from burning Eritrea and Eritreans, and that is the ዱቄት that they are asking Abiy to deliver!

Selam Kidane

Dec 31 2019

This article originally appeared on August 31, 2018 with the heading: “Eritrea-Ethiopia: A Confederation We Didn’t Vote On.” In the heady summer of 2018, most of you were too dazed to have read it and now you keep being surprised by the Isaias Afwerki-Abiy Ahmed love affair. Maybe the heading was too subtle? So, here it is: it is a conspiracy. The idea of confederating Eritrea with Ethiopia was something Isaias Afwerki wanted badly in 1991. But there were two forces working against it: the people of Eritrea and their political leaders, particularly the victorious EPLF; and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) which, for its own domestic ambitions, wanted no role for Isaias in Ethiopia. (If you want to have your head blown, go back and listen to Aboy Sebhat interview from a few years ago which all ridiculed when he said “TPLF cares more about Eritrean sovereignty than EPLF” : replace EPLF by Isaias, and put his statements within the current context and conspiracy.)  Now with the TPLF sidelined, and the Eritrean people arrested, exiled, and feeling demoralized, Isaias and his confederalist feel this is the perfect time to pursue his life-long dream at warp speed. In fact, they are working faster to make their dream a reality than we are to arrest it.  Read on.

“A confederation is an institutional arrangement in which the policies of different districts are, at least in part, influenced by the preferences of voters from other districts in the confederation.  In practice, this is usually accomplished through a complex array of overlapping jurisdictions, representative governments at different levels, and a legal system that allocates decision-making authority and responsibility across these different levels.  The end result is ultimately a vectors of policies, one for each district.”   – Political Confederation Author(s): Jacques Crémer and Thomas R. Palfrey Source: The American Political Science Review, Vol. 93, No. 1 (Mar., 1999), pp. 69-83

In this article, I argue that Eritrea and Ethiopia are well on their way to forming a confederation.  This would be the fourth type of configuration for the two countries.  Take One: Eritrea-Ethiopia Federation of 1952.  Take Two:  Dissolution of Federation and Annexation of 1962.   Take Three: Referendum and Independence of 1993.   Take Four: the “Peace & Friendship” Agreement of 2018.    What’s noteworthy is that, unlike all previous configurations (federation, dissolution, independence), the present one is happening without the vote (even a coerced one), or even the knowledge, of the Eritrean people.

The first thing to say about this is that both the government of Ethiopia and Eritrea (in the person of Isaias Afwerki ONLY) had expressed their desire for this as early as 1993.  Shortly after Eritrea’s referendum on independence was held, Reuters reported (on May 3, 1993) that then-President Meles Zenawi “did not rule out confederation, a view shared by Eritrean leader Isayas Afewerki.”  The second thing to say about this is that, on the merits, this may very well be the best arrangement for Eritreans and Ethiopians, but that’s hardly the point.  The third thing to say about it, which will be the focus of this article, is that the author’s objection to it is that it is being done, at least from the perspective of Eritreans, very secretly and without consulting the people.  It appears to be the execution of the long-term dream of President Isaias Afwerki, now that all who may oppose him are dead or disappeared or exiled.  The fourth thing to say about it, which we won’t spend a lot of time on, is that confederation arrangements are almost always a stop on the path to fuller integration (federation, union) or separation following dissolution.  That is, confederations between sovereign states are almost always temporary because there isn’t a long-term agreement on how weak or strong the “center” ought to be.

In this new configuration, what one notices is an assertive Ethiopia in contrast with a meek Eritrea; a delegation of responsibilities from Eritrea to Ethiopia; an absorption of responsibilities by Ethiopia (from Eritrean state media to Ethiopian media, where Eritreans now go to hear news about Eritrea); rewriting history in a way that is most favorable to the “we are one people” narrative; absolutely no change in the governance of Eritrea and zero reform in its criminal path; two leaders who scorn the involvement of people in decision-making; and lastly, people who knew better, should have spoken up much sooner, now saying, “oh, yes, I saw the warning signs early on.”

Here are the sequence of events:

June 26, 2018: It all started in Addis Abeba. Six days after Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki informed the world that he was sending delegates to Addis Abeba to study the Ethiopian proposal for peace, his two delegates, Foreign Minister Osman Saleh and PFDJ Political Director/Presidential Advisor Yemane Gebreab arrived in Addis Abeba to a stately reception. In his address, Foreign Minister Osman Saleh, referring to the reception, said that he can bear witness that in Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed “we have a humble leader” (ናይ ብሓቂ ምቕሉል ዝኾነ መራሒ ከም ዘለና…)

This was dismissed as a slip of tongue, perhaps from someone to whom Tigrinya is not a first language and is not known for being a great orator.  Perhaps the great speaker and polemicist Mr. Yemane Gebreab would say something that reflected the sentiments of Eritreans: a peaceful but proud people? It feels like the last 20 years never happened, he said. Then he used the word “love”, which was such an uncomfortable usage in his parlance he felt compelled to sheepishly credit it to PM Abiy Ahmed.

https://youtu.be/ymWYGHEQW8w

July 8, 2018: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed arrives in Asmara, Eritrea. In his address at a State dinner, President Isaias Afwerki, hosting the event, says he has no prepared speech. After describing the elation people showed in welcoming Abiy Ahmed as an ability to exercise their right (how?), he laments the lost opportunities of the past 25 years.  Not 20 (since the 1998 war), but 25 (since 1993, which coincides with Eritrea’s referendum.)  But now, he says, we can say, “we didn’t lose, there was no loss, we recovered all our property.”  He congratulates the people and the Prime Minister and, less than 3 minutes later, he says: I am finished. Then it was the Prime Minister’s turn and he speaks for more than 15 minutes. His speech included this: “… today, officially, President Isaias Afwerki has given me the responsibility of Foreign Minister so, wherever I go, if I represent Mr. Osman, don’t think of it as duplication….”

https://youtu.be/Qq2DKC19DLE

July 9, 2018: Eritrea and Ethiopia sign the “joint declaration of peace and friendship” referred to as the Five Pillar agreement by Eritrea’s Minister of Information in a tweet. The agreement jumps straight from what Eritrean government officials used to call a state of war to friendship overnight. It has no timetable for demarcation and troop removal from Eritrea’s territories which used to be, for 16 years, Eritrea’s precondition for dialog and normalization. THERE IS NO COPY OF THE SIGNED AGREEMENT ANYWHERE. All sources referring to it (UN, US Embassy, Western media, Aljazeera) have only relied on the Minister of Information’s tweet about it. Here’s how it compares with the Five Point Peace Plan Ethiopia proposed (and Eritrea rejected) in November 2004:

July 14: President Isaias arrives in Ethiopia and is serenaded in Addis Abeba. In his first speech, at Hawassa, he says that while we are trying to achieve our goals, “anybody who says the people of Eritrea and Ethiopia are two peoples is someone who doesn’t know the truth.”

July 14: In his second address, he says: “ህዝቢ ኤርትራን ህዝቢ ኢትዮፕያን ረኺቡዎ ዘሎ ዕድል ቀሊል ነገር ኣይኮነን እወ ኣነ ተደጋጋሚ ተደጋጋሚ ኢለዮ ኣለኹ ዝኾነ ዝግበር ነገር እንድሕር ኣሎ ወኪል ንስኻ ኢኻ: ንስኻ ኢኻ ትመርሓና: ንቀልዕለም ኖ ኖ ናይ ንቀልዓለም ኢለ ከሐጉሶ ኢለ ወይ ዘረባ ንኽጥዕመኒ ምእንቲ ኢለ ዝብሎ ዘይኮነ ናይ ብሓቂ እዚ ሕጂ ህይወት ኣልቢስና ንደፍኦ ዘለና ሰላም ፍቕሪ ጸጋ ናይ ክልቲኣቶም ህዝብታት ጥራይ ዘይኮነ ናይ ልምዓት ናይ ገስጋስ ናይ ዕብየት መደባትና ሓደ ካብቲ ካልእ ዝፍለ ኣይኮነን ነዚ ካኣ ዶክተር ኣብይ ብዝድለ ክመርሓና እዩ::” (The opportunities that the people of Eritrea and Ethiopia find now are not trivial. I have told him [Prime Minister Abiy] repeatedly, repeatedly: in any affair, if there is something that needs action, you are our representative. You are the one to lead us. I am not saying this to flatter him or to please him or for the sake of saying it: because our [Eritrea and Ethiopia’s] paths of peace, love, prosperity, developmental plan are indistinguishable from each other, Dr. Abiy Ahmed will lead us as required.)  He wasn’t done: in his speech at the Millenium Hall, after much be-still-my-beating-heart chest pounding,  he did something he had never done in his political career: give a speech in Amharic.

There was no clue Isaias Afwerki was going to melt: the last thing he did before he left Asmara was to address Sawa National Service conscripts and his message was ዕጥቅኹም ሸጥ ኣብሉ (remain in a state of alert).

July 18: Ethiopian Airlines flies to Eritrea for the first time in 20 years. Among the passengers was Ethiopia’s former Prime Minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, who described the trip as a “golden moment for the two countries and the two people.” Also among the first passengers, Ethiopian pentecostal pastor “Prophet” Surafael who was received by followers of his faith, which is banned in Eritrea and where a lot of its practitioners remain in jail or unaccounted for. Ethiopian Airlines says it will have daily flights to Eritrea.  The Pentecostals were arrested in the following weeks.

July 19: Mesfin Hagos, a veteran leader of EPLF (member of central committee and executive committee) discloses to Australia’s SBS radio that three months before Eritrean independence in May 1991, President Isaias Afwerki had approached some members of the EPLF leadership, including him, about forming a joint government with EPRDF, the ruling coalition of Ethiopia. While the other leaders of the Central Committee had nothing to say, he expressed his objection, as something that would be unacceptable to Eritreans after so much sacrifice, he said.   Asked why he was disclosing this information now, he said it is because (a) he was asked a direct question by SBS Radio and (b) he was triggered to it by the recent developments between Eritrea and Ethiopia.

July 23: The government of Eritrea, after floating rumors of pending release of prisoners, actually arrests an additional 19 – discloses Hannibal Daniel to SBS Radio

“በዚ ዝመጸ ሰላም ምኽንያት ፡ ኣብ ኤርትራ ብእምነቶም ተኣሲሮም ካብዘለዉ፡ ዛጊት ዋላ ሓደ ዝተፈትሐ የለን። 19 ኣመንቲ ግና ኣብዚ ቕነ ተኣሲሮም ኣለዉ።” ሃኒባል ዳኒኤል | SBS Your Language #Eritrea https://t.co/HTpYbywozY

— Brehane-meskel Araya (@brehane007) July 23, 2018

July 24: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Isaias Afwerki were given the “Order of Zayed” at Abu Dhabi summit hosted by Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed. Along with the King of Saudi Arabia, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi is credited for the Eritrea-Ethiopia normalization of their 20-year long cold war. There was a lot of jockeying to establish submission: Isaias Afwerki insisted that the Crown Prince hold the Ethiopian Prime Minister with his right hand, which is considered a sign of of respect in Arab culture:

July 27: Eritrea’s president invites Somalia’s president for a meeting in Eritrea. The Somali president accepts and arrives the next day. Once there, he calls for the UN to lift sanctions on Eritrea. Djibouti replies that it is “deeply shocked” by the statement of the Somali president because the sanctions were not imposed due to Eritrea and Ethiopia being in a state of war:

BREAKING: Djibouti says it’s “deeply shocked” by statement made by Pres @M_Farmaajo calling for lifting of sanctions and economic restrictions on Eritrea. Djibouti says it’s “unacceptable” to see Somalia supporting Eritrea at a time when Asmara is “occupying” Djibouti territory. pic.twitter.com/rJxWvfaPdK

— Harun Maruf (@HarunMaruf) August 1, 2018

July 28: Ethiopia’s Prime Minister says the border issue is a minor issue and the two countries have not discussed it since they signed the peace and friendship agreement weeks earlier. There are contentious issues which will be dialogued. He also expressed his view that calls for involving locals on border matters are “village talk”: (የመንደር ወሬ: idle, unsophisticated chat).  “When the former prime minister [Meles Zenawi] called me to serve [in the Eritrea-Ethiopia border war], my friends and family and I served without question,” he said, implying now that he is the Prime Minister, the people should not insist on participating in the decision-making.

July 31: The UN Security Council decides to extend sanctions on Eritrea despite calls for their removal from Ethiopia and Somalia.  Ethiopia actually spoke more eloquently for their removal than the Eritrean delegate did.

August 1: Hailemariam Desalegn, Ethiopia’s former Prime Minister, in Harare as part of an election observation team, had his picture taken with exiled Ethiopian dictator Colonel Mengistu Hailemariam and expressed his wish that he would be reconciled, too.  Eritrea and mostly-Tigrayan Ethiopian rebels fought for over a decade and half, and paid a heavy price to defeat the man who was called the “Black Stalin.”

The Good, The Bad & The Ugly.

(Mr Good not pictured)#Eritrea. #Ethiopia pic.twitter.com/6A5TzaP2Fc

— saay (@saayEritrea) August 2, 2018

August 4: Eritrean Airlines begins its 3-times weekly flight to Addis Abeba, Ethiopia. Passengers include the Minister of Tourism, and the Minister of Transportation.

"Eritrean" airlines makes inaugural flight to Addis, #Ethiopia.

An #Eritrea|n airlines with a rented plane. No Eritrean Pilots or technicians.

An airlines mismanaged & bankrupted 6 times in 2 decades by PFDJ.

An Eritrean airlines now managed by Isias's personal controbandist.

— Wulad (@DeqiWoldeMikel) August 4, 2018

August 6: Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister, Workneh Gebeyehu, and Oromio Regional President, Lemma Megersa, arrive in Eritrea to negotiate terms of reconciliation with Eritrea-based Oromo Liberation Front faction led by Dawud Ibsa.

August 9: Regarding the dispute between Saudi Arabia and Canada, Eritrea’s government issues a press release condemning the “irresponsible, provocative and audacious” statement of Canada regarding the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s human rights record. Eritrea further calls on Saudi Arabia to take “appropriate measures” to protect its sovereignty. Saudi Arabia considered Canada’s call to release an arrested civil society leader as violation of its sovereignty and had already taken “appropriate measures” 3 days earlier.

August 10: UAE and Ethiopia sign an agreement to build an oil pipeline connecting Eritrean port Asab to Ethiopian capital Addis Abeba. In the meeting held between Reem Al Hashimy, UAE’s Minister of State for International Cooperation and Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, there was no Eritrean presence.

August 14: Radio Erena reports that Saudi Arabia was asking Eritrea to send troops to Yemen to help it defeat the Houthi rebels. In 2014, the Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea (SEMG) reported that it had received “credible information that Eritrean soldiers are embedded with the United Arab Emirates contingent that is fighting Yemeni forces.”

Independent #Eritrea media #radioerena reporting #SaudiArabia asking #Eritrea to send soldiers to #Yemen. Soon, #Ethiopia. In 15, @UN #SEMG report: #Eritrean soldiers already embedded with #UAE.

Hope ur guy is reasonable @Natberh. Ours hasn’t made a good decision in decades. pic.twitter.com/3gS40vrVqz

— saay (@saayEritrea) August 15, 2018

August 16: Representatives of an Ethiopian region, Amhara, travel to Eritrean capital, Asmara, to reconcile with one of the Eritrea-based Ethiopian rebels, Amhara Democratic Forces Movement. They sign a reconciliation agreement allowing them to pursue peaceful competition in Ethiopia. The Eritrean president is extended, and accepts, an invitation to visit Amhara State.

August 17: Ms. Bronwyn Bruton, a noted supporter of the Government of Eritrea who is usually the canary-in-the-coal-mine of the PFDJ always foreshadowing what is to happen next, said that it is unrealistic for Eritreans to expect all those who have been arrested without charges to be released because, after all, Eritrea is in the Horn of Africa, a region which faces extremist threats and ethnic and political conflicts.

Hi @yoelalem. Sadly, it is hard to release all these prisoners. #Eritrea is in HOA region that faces extremist threats & ethnic & political conflicts. Asmara has suppressed these legitimate threats by arresting anyone who might possibly cause trouble or unrest…

— Bronwyn Bruton (@BronwynBruton) August 17, 2018

August 18: South Sudan President Salva Kiir arrived in Asmara at the invitation of Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss bilateral issues including building a pipeline between South Sudan and Eritrea.

.#Eritrea President Isaias Afwerki, indicted by the @UN for committing crimes against humanity, salutes #SouthSudan president @salvakiir, who is accused by @AfricanUnion of crimes against humanity.

Cheers, impunity! pic.twitter.com/ljbDKcYACM

— saay (@saayEritrea) August 21, 2018

August 23: Andargachew Tsige, the leader of Gnbot-7, one of the Eritrea-based Ethiopian opposition groups (and the one who takes credit for reconciling Eritrea with Ethiopia), is interviewed by LTV Ethiopia. In answer to a question on the relationship between Eritrea and Gnbot-7, he says that if TPLF had not rushed the EPLF to hold the referendum in 1993, had it been delayed by 5 years, he doesn’t believe the outcome (99% for independence) would have been the same. He explains his rationale by saying that Eritreans were devoted to Ethiopia (more Eritreans than Tigrayans fought to defend Ethiopia from aggressors, he says)  and had it not been for Haile Selasse’s misguided decision to dissolve the federation, it is clear that based on our looks, our beliefs, and Eritrea’s volunteering alongside Ethiopia against foreign aggressors, Eritrea is “a miniature Ethiopia.” He also calls notorious criminals of PFDJ who have been indicted for crimes against humanity as clean as monks.

https://youtu.be/ZF42T31mMK8?t=33m55s

August 25: “Germany’s federal minister for economic cooperation and development, Gerd Müller, who is visiting several African countries, has said about 15,000 young Eritreans arrived in Germany this year, making in total some 75,000 Eritreans seeking asylum in Germany. Müller said he hoped Eritrea would change its system of years long military conscription. He also urged the country to move toward establishing democratic structures.” You wouldn’t know this is what he said from shabait.com article showing President Isaias Afwerki, with hand-in-pocket, welcoming the German delegation to Adi Halo. But you can read it here.

August 27: Amhara Mass Media Agency Ethiopia interviews “eyewitnesses” in Eritrea who praise the Government of Eritrea’s modesty: the Minister of Justice hails a taxi with the masses, they report  (not the Minister of Justice doesn’t appear to know anything about justice), etc, etc.

August 28: In an interview with Australia’s SBS Radio, Ambassador Abdella Adem (a veteran combatant of EPLF who was Eritrea’s ambassador to Sudan) says President Isaias Afwerki always had a plan to weaken Eritrea’s Muslim sector and in his conversation with Ethiopia’s late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, he came to learn that President Isaias was dispatching trusted confederates (like the late Naizghi Kiflu) to rekindle the “Tigrai-Tigrini” alliance.

August 28: Tigray People’s Democratic Movement (TPDM), another Eritrea-based Ethiopian rebel group, is reconciled with the representatives of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. Unlike other rebel groups who were reconciled with the Ethiopian government representatives of their region (Oromia, Amhara), the Tigrayan rebels were reconciled with the central government because the Eritrean Government and Ethiopia’s Tigray regional state government are still in Cold War, long after the “Peace & Friendship Agreement” was signed.

August 29: Eritrea’s former Minister of Finance, Berhane Abrehe, writes a two-part 450-page book entitled “Hagerey Ertra” (Eritrea, My Country) exposing the criminality and treachery of Isaias Afwerki, including his long-term intent to surrender (“fully integrate”) Eritrea to Ethiopia. He somehow managed to have the book published in the Diaspora and despite opportunities to go to exile and defect, the ailing Minister said that he will face whatever expects him in his home country, Eritrea. Berhane’s wife Almaz has been in jail for over a year and the two have four children.  Read the excerpt of his book here.

Tamrat Negera Feyisa, an Ethiopian political scientist/analyst, was hosted by Sheger Times Media to share his reading on what transpired in Ethiopia the week prior to January 1, 2010.  Since that included the time that Eritrea’s president Isaias Afwerki was in Ethiopia for several days, Tamrat gave his reading of the visit which touched on Ethiopian policy towards Eritrea.   This resulted in a lot of blowback and he was invited again on January 6 to expound on his views.  The following is a translation of what he said in both interviews, provided without commentary  All errors in translation are the fault of my Amharic teachers.

January 1, 2020:

Let’s focus on the relationship between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Isaias Afwerki. It is very hard for me to describe it as relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea. When receiving his Nobel Peace Prize, Prime Minister Abiy complimented President Isaias Afwerki as his peace partner. And, if you remember, in Norway, the Eritrean opposition had come out to demonstrate: there is no peace, etc. The norm when awarding the Nobel Peace Prize is, for example, when President Nelson Mandela received his, so did [South Africa Apartheid-era President] de Klerk. Yasir Arafat, I think, got it along with Shimon Perez. So people thought both President Isaias Afwerki and Prime Minister Abiy would be conferred the award jointly.

But, by many measures, because President Isaias Afwerki is not fit for the Nobel Peace Prize, or any prize, he did not receive it. And because this snub may upset President Isaias Afwerki and derail Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s strategic plans and ideas, the trip [Isaias Afwerki visit to Ethiopia] was a consolation prize. The “Ethiopia-Eritrea relationship”, or what I call the “Isaias-Abiy relationship”, is not founded on researchable, tangible institutions, ideas, or laws. There is no explicit mention of the two countries national interest and a clear articulation of it. It is based on permission and goodwill of two individuals. Prime Minister Abiy wants to contain TPLF [Tigray People’s Liberation Front] and thus needs President Isaias and is using him. Prime Minister Abiy wanted many Ethiopian opposition groups, including Ginbot-7, to be expelled from Eritrea, and for that he needed President Isaias. He has achieved that. President Isaias wanted to solve his private problems, as well as to lift UN sanctions that were triggered by Ethiopia. Not just sanctions but isolation, the status of a pariah state. And that he received from Prime Minister Abiy. So, it is mutual interest of two individuals, not on the interest of the two countries.

The very existence of Eritrea is a question mark. By existence, I mean sovereignty, that which Eritrea claims to have. It is illusion of sovereignty. Its sovereignty is based on disfavor of Ethiopia: denying it access to sea; allying with its historic and contemporary enemies. This existence is not enduring. The day Ethiopia decides Eritrea shouldn’t exist, Eritrea won’t. There is no force that can stop Ethiopia. Not the United Nations, nobody. But for now, domestic issues have blocked us. And Eritreans know this. Every Eritrean knows this: the day Ethiopia exercises its will, there will be no such country as Eritrea.

On the Ethio-Eritrea issues, one of the things Prime Minister Abiy has done is to clearly tell the international community that Ethiopia cannot go on without having a port; he has established a Naval force. And these steps cause anxiety among Eritreans. The wish of Ethiopians is unfulfilled; the anxiety of Eritreans is un-addressed. So there is just a tit-for-tat now to meet the private interests of the two [Isaias Afwerki and Abiy Ahmed.] So I see this just as a transitional phase. The fundamental questions have not been answered. Not only have they not been answered, they are not even being discussed. One thing that the Prime Minister has done differently and better from his predecessors–Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, President Mengistu, Haile Selasse I–is to take the Eritrean issue not to Eritrea but to Arab countries, and bring it to its conclusion. Partially. He initiated the case by going to United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. This shows the Eritrean issue is not an Eritrea issue but that of those who move it in the background, the Arabs. He was able to soothe and pacify them. We will see how long it will last but for now: he has allowed them to invest and trade, to ally with them by eschewing hard power and opting for soft power such as trade, economy and diplomacy.

So, it has been partly addressed. What I am saying, though, is a lasting solution that addresses Ethiopia’s lasting needs has not been addressed. How do we do that is something that is still in its formative stage. And, as I always say, Prime Minister Abiy also treats those issues vaguely or with generalities.

QUESTION ON ASAB, BORDERS and NAVAL FORCE

On Asab, the roads are being constructed on the Eritrean side.

The borders are closed to address Eritrean concerns, not Ethiopian concerns. President Isaias is unable to control the people-to-people relations and the [cross-border] trade. Additionally, they want to contain movement of TPLF and that of Eritrean opposition. It appears to me they [Eritreans] want to control their domestic issues. What this shows is, as I said earlier, that fundamental questions of the two nations based on concrete findings have not been addressed: money, trade, people-to-people relations, political order. There is nothing transparent. Specially from the Eritrean side. When you compare the balance of benefit, it appears Eritrea benefited more [from the normalization.] When we say Eritrea, I don’t mean the country but President Isaias: a regime that was on the verge of death got life; a government that was isolated has been opened up to the world. America’s interest as it relates to regional war has contributed to this.

As it relates to Ethiopia Naval force, Eritrea was never an option. This [what the interviewer suggested] is the first time I am hearing of it. And I don’t think Eritrea wants that. It was always Djibouti, or since Djibouti is a puppet state of France, the agreement was with France. Djibouti is already hosting French, American, Chinese, German and other naval bases and for Ethiopia to establish it there, for now, is proper. Until we return to our historic property, Massawa, and establish our camp there, it is not bad for it to be in Djibouti. It is a good location: close to the Red Sea and Indian Ocean. At least for now, while our naval forces are in their infancy. We will see together what the future will bring.

ON FORMALIZING THE ERITREA-ETHIOPIA RELATIONS 

I really don’t care about Eritrea or Isaias. What concerns me is Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s interest: what does Ethiopia want in the Middle East and Africa? When we, specially our government, make that clear to ourselves…. for buzz, for diplomacy all that “we are one people” and such like myth and mythology is good. In actuality, what Ethiopia wants, first and foremost, is its own port. Rent, lease, own: its own. It needs access to the sea. That’s first. Secondly, we must construct an Eritrea that can never pose a danger to Ethiopia. We don’t need all this “we are brothers, we are sisters” idle talk, in my view. Clearly: an Eritrea without an armed force; one without diplomatic presence of embassies, a police force that carries nothing stronger than a stick is what we need. You create an Eritrea that can’t pose political, economic, diplomatic threat and give it to them. And in this regard, for Eritreans not to be educated, not to work [not to advance] and be a strong country, we should not forget the big favor President Isaias had done for us in the past 30 years. That’s what we should build and work on. A police force equipped with a stick, and one embassy: in Addis Ababa. All their international relations should be handled by Ethiopia’s Foreign Ministry. Creating such a state is possible and necessary. Then access to sea with our armed force becomes totally ours. Outside that, with our permission, they can participate in the Olympics…[laughs]

This is one definition. You don’t get involved in Eritrean nationalism and quandaries. They can have their own government: some sort of administration. Unity, we are one people, etc is not necessary. What we want is our access to the sea, and, secondly, a country that doesn’t pose political, diplomatic, economic threat. In my view, this is the way forward. To do that, we need an agreement among the elite on what is it that we want.

January 6, 2020

ON REACTION TO HIS FIRST INTERVIEW AND CLAIMS HE IS DECLARING WAR

Two things. First, if you remember, we mentioned the Eritrean case in passing. Our main subject was the developments in Oromia Region. Secondly, an individual doesn’t declare war. Only governments have power, authority and legitimacy to declare war. Many are talking as if I am an advisor to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed: I wish! I am not even a government official, so I can’t declare war. When I am capable of it, we will discuss it then: in the meantime, I can’t. So what am I saying? Minimally, as a citizen, a politically-active citizen, I have things to say to the two countries, particularly their two leaders: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Isaias Afwerki.

With regards to Abiy Ahmed, I have already stated: I am an admirer of the measures he took to approach Eritrea using its Arab chiefs, something never been done by prior Ethiopian governments. I hope he continues with that approach. But that is the first phase. The thing I want to say is that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s way of communicating policy is very informal. For example, he presents himself as Eritrea’s Foreign Minister. There are no institutionalized policies…for example, in the Foreign Ministry, Defense Ministry, National Service Office, I don’t see anyone in his proximity from the many who have almost 50 years of experience about Eritrea. For example when the Eritrean delegation arrives in Addis Ababa, most of their delegation members are over 70 years old. When you look at the Ethiopian delegation, the one you can say has some experience as it relates to Eritrea is Dr. Arkebe [Ouqubay].

So, first of all, who should participate [from the Ethiopian side] are those who have studied the Eritrean issue for long and are experienced in it. Secondly, drop the informality and formalize it. In writing. What does Ethiopia want? For example, recently they embarked on creating an independent economic commission. The Eritrean case requires such an approach, in appears to me. For example, in this case, Brigadier General Tsadkan, has a stand different from TPLF. His stand is closer to that of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Such people should be included in the caucus. Outreach must begin. That’s all I am saying. Formalizing it prevents mistakes, and strengthens it with details. Getting it wrong would not be a trivial thing. For example, from my standpoint, there were sanctions preventing Eritrea from acquiring weapons. They [Ethiopian government] got those lifted. So, if tomorrow, war is waged, it will be using weapons we allowed to be carried. To prevent such developments, the Prime Minister must transition from informal to formal, and instead of using novices, use experienced people. This is all I have to say to Prime Minister Abiy.

As for President Isaias, I only have one thing to say. You have wasted a lot of opportunities to solve the Eritrea-Ethiopia issue properly. Now, and until death, he has an opportunity to address his issue with his people and with Ethiopia. Don’t be like Robert Mugabe, and exit from power in humiliation. Or like his friend and relative Meles Zenawi: to be pre-empted by death. He has an opportunity to improve his legacy. Let him think about it. If he is grooming his son for his position, there is no benefit to him or the people by doing that. It will only make matters worse. That’s all I have to say to him.

War? I have no ability, I am only a citizen.

ON ERITREANS ANGER TO THE FIRST INTERVIEW

Eritrean issues are their issues. I didn’t talk about their country. I have neither love nor hatred on this issue. It’s cold heart when discussing policies: love doesn’t enter into it. It is about self-interest. What I talked about is my country’s interest. And anything that stands opposed to my country’s interest, I won’t let go even if it’s my mother’s child. So, this is not their issue, it is my issue. That’s first.

Secondly, about Eritreans, specially the outspoken ones. They like to play house with countries. They fought a country that, measured by population, history, economy, military, diplomacy, exceeds them by millions; they became its enemy, its neighboring country, denied their ports and want to play a country. But they don’t want to pay the price of what it takes to be a country. But whether they want to or not, they have to pay.

The problem with Haile Selasse and Derg is that they always treated this as a civil war. And because of that, they never dismissed Eritrean officials from power. Including critical ones like Foreign Ministry, military generals, officers, Ethiopian Airlines… senior positions. Because they didn’t take collective punitive measures. Who started expulsions was the one who helped them in their secession from Ethiopia, their mom’s child, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. Derg didn’t do that, Haile Selasse didn’t do that. During the Derg and Haileselasse era, atrocities were committed on Eritrea, just as they were in other parts of Ethiopia. Killing and arrests. Neither the Derg nor Haile Selasse government was guilty of selling kidneys. It was their own government which did that. We didn’t do that. The Derg closed houses of faith all over Ethiopia, including Eritrea, then a province. But the violation of the right of worship we see now in Eritrea has never been done anywhere in Ethiopia, even by Derg. We all know Protestantism was banned claiming it was a “CIA faith.” This was never done: it was done by their government.

What else can I say? It was their government who arrested them in the desert, inside containers. Not us. Universities were not closed during the Derg era. In fact, to incentivize them not to go to the field [to join the revolution], Eritrean youth were allowed to join universities with lower marks. Isn’t it their government which claims that it fought for them, liberated them that is doing all this? Isn’t this the government they are defending? PAY THE PRICE! You will pay the price. I am not the one charging it. Getting angry at me will not change that. Threatening me won’t bring any results. Let them first sit down and think about the issue. Let them dialogue about it. Their elders and their educated should sit down and ask how do we stop this from continuing the way it is. To deal with their insecurity. By the way, all the loudmouths are loud because they know what I said is the glaring truth. They know it is factual. Being an Eritrean and being Ethiopia’s historical enemy can’t continue. How do we address Ethiopia’s interest and Eritrea’s interest? What is Ethiopia’s interest and what is Eritrea’s interest? And which interests do we have the ability to meet, is the question we should be asking.

If you look at Ethiopia’s population, over 70% is under 30 years old. If you see Eritrea, it is the reverse. After the exodus, the country has been reduced to that of the aged and elderly. A country without a bank? An amazing country with a bank where people can’t even withdraw their own money? We didn’t do that. This is the sort of thing they should discuss among themselves. Then they can have the comprehension to propose solutions.

ON WHETHER WHAT HE IS CALLING FOR IS TANTAMOUNT TO DECLARATION OF WAR

This doesn’t require war. The reason for the shouting is because they know Ethiopia’s capacity. What do I mean by that? If Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was to write a one-page letter, one page, one page, to the United Nations, Eritrea’s existence is reduced by 80-90%. It was the then-President Meles Zenawi who gave up Eritrea. Ethiopia does not have to fire a bullet. Just one letter to the United Nations. With a cc to the African Union. Then it continues its diplomatic efforts. How China deals with Taiwan is to go after every country and ensure it doesn’t have an embassy in Taiwan. Has it fired a shot? No, it hasn’t. Ethiopia can even use its indebtedness as a leverage to countries like China: if you want us to repay our loan, close your embassy in Eritrea. Adjust the position you have with UN vis-a-vis Eritrea, is what you say. China, America, and pick France or UK. After that it is lobbying. Without a single bullet, you can worsen the lives of Eritrean by 90%. This is the first step.

It was the Prime Minister who got the sanctions lifted for Eritrea. All that needs to be done is to request it be reinstated. You don’t have to fire a single bullet: just use your diplomatic power. Then you will see what happens? Is it a matter of ports? We can continue with Berbera, Djibouti, Port Sudan. Point is: to incapacitate Eritrea, you don’t have to fire a bullet. The government they claimed liberated them has done more than 50% of the work for us. It has formed a government that is second in line to North Korea in its awfulness. The government they say they paid their children’s lives to form. With its cooperation, we don’t have to fire a shot.

Moreover, what did the Prime Minister do? With goodwill, he opened the borders. Who is migrating en masse here? Did we go there? Even if we say, let’s go to war, there is nobody to go to war with. We can stroll there brushing our teeth. Technically, who are you going to war with? It is a country one can enter riding a mule. And they know this. They have witnessed it. There is no such thing as war. Firstly, the matter will be concluded diplomatically. Secondly, even if you declare war, there is nobody to have war with. Everybody who is making noise is in the Diaspora.

ON ETHIOPIANS WHO OPPOSE HIS MESSAGE

Let me classify these Ethiopians.

There are those who are drunk on Amara-Oromo-etc politics, the provincial ones. All they think about is their ward, their little jurisdiction. Their focus is micro-issues. Oromo-Amara-Gurage-Welkait…We are discussing about a nation and geo-politics. They don’t have the capacity to address this issue. Their view-point, their know-how, their interest don’t make them capable to discuss this. All they are capable of is ward-issues. And I don’t want to answer them.

The second group are those who see themselves as liberal, enlightened, progressive. They want to be perceived as such. They want to be perceived as more knowledgeable than Tamrat about international law. They want to strengthen intra-people relations. These, to me, are like a married man, father of 3 children, with an ailing mom and hosting a brother or sister-in-law. But he spends all his time and money at the brew-house. He ignores the education of his own children and family members, but sends the child of the brew-house owner to private school. These people are like the man I just mentioned. They are weak.

First, know what is in your nation’s best interest before you talk about international law. International law is written to protect world order, while accommodating the nature of States. Let alone a country like Ethiopia with its own historical ports, these are States who have plundered other people’s ports and are protected by international law. There is no economy that is not based on plundering resources. Why is China here? How about the US in Iran and Iraq? What were the Brits and French doing and what are they doing now? What is France doing in Africa? What is Little Rwanda doing in the Congo? Did Rwanda acquire wealth and development by working or by plundering Congo? What about South Africa? When the Arabs and Saudis come here to grow rice…what are they doing? When they send us Al Amoudi, what are they doing? They must know these fundamental things and stop being naive.

The others…those who are tuned in Asmara, those who compete on who can sell the country first.. There are those who are breast-fed on the tits of EPLF. With those, history will be their arbiter. We can’t give an answer to these type. As I said, they are tuned in Asmara, and what they talk about now is what was tuned in Asmara. You can’t tell them to be cured or heal themselves. History will be what we will use to debate with them.

ON PORTS: WHY CAN’T WE USE THE AUSTRIA-SWITZERLAND MODEL

The Austria-Switzerland model cannot be used as model. In “The Bottom Billion”, Paul Collier uses Ethiopia and Eritrea as a model. There is a cost to not having a port. If those who own the ports are not hostile to you, for example the case of Austria and Switzerland… but Eritrea’s national identity is based on hatred of Ethiopia. They have inferiority complex and see Ethiopia as colonizing power…their imagination is very limited and the Austria-Switzerland model can’t work. That’s first. If the Eritrean nationalists understood this and, at the bare minimum, gave Asab to Ethiopia, we could have a discussion.

Secondly, people don’t understand what a port and its benefits are. This is because the TPLF has conducted an extensive indoctrination via its media, education policy, and its “let them use it [Asab] as watering holes for camels” propaganda. But in reality, it is precious: everything we import includes a port cost. If you have your own port, there would be a cost reduction of, at minimum, 25%. Secondly, you lack options in transportation and services.

Something else many, including those viewing this station, don’t understand: how the Internet works. How does Ethiopia get access to the Internet? We are getting it via Djibouti and Port Sudan via cables that we paid for. We could have gotten it from Asab, 60 kilometers away [from mainland Ethiopia.] This is submarine cable. 99% of the internet is carried via this cable. This is what you are deprived from. Right now we are connected via Djibouti and Port Sudan, at cables installed at our cost. Our internet is based on the goodwill of these two countries. Any problem and they can turn the switch off. They can also see every information you are communicating. How can I explain how grave this issue is and how dangerous it is.

Moreover, the Ethiopian Airlines we are proud of? Because you have no port, your air traffic is based on the good will of your neighbors. If you have no port, you have no airline route without the permission of those who have ports. In peaceful times, all appears normal. But what if some country is angry with you or is at war? Why don’t we think about that? Every Ethiopian has a duty to think about this.

Leaving aside those who can’t think beyond their wards, the national parties, including the Prosperity Party, must be asked about this issue. What is their agenda? Because, for a nation, this is not just a matter of economy, but survival. Those who say we can live without ports, your obligation is not just to survive. But to give a future generation a more secure country. People save money, why? Similarly, owning a port is about national survival.

You have 110 million people, and you want to be industrialized and you don’t have a port? When investors go to a country they evaluate three things: I mean major investors not oil factories. I am talking about major, transformative investment. Something that can create jobs for 100 to 200 thousand people. You want that? You have to have a port. And if you can’t do that, maybe you don’t survive as a nation. This generation must ask this question of survival. Past generations have paid the utmost to answer it. And this generation must pay the price.

By the way, when you see Ethiopians hosting Eritreans, embracing them, shedding tears and you tell yourself, “Ethiopians don’t think like Tamrat”? You are very, very mistaken. I don’t care if you are tuned in Asmara or Japan. Ethiopians do not forget this thing. And they can’t because it is a matter of survival. It is not personal grudge; it is a matter of survival.

ON WHY ETHIOPIAN PARTIES DON’T HAVE A POSITION ON THIS ISSUE

The party headed by Prime Minister Abiy, Prosperity Party, looks at this issue delicately, diplomatically and has chosen to be quiet. I think instead of talking the way I do, it has chosen to speak with the voice of diplomacy. So I will give a pass to Prime Minister Abiy and the Prosperity Party.

EZEMA [ECSJ, Ethiopian Citizens For Social Justice, formerly known as Ginbot 7], as I said, was tuned in Asmara. Don’t expect this from them or their leadership. After spending all that time kissing the shoes of Isaias Afwerki, don’t expect them to speak up for Ethiopia’s national interest.

What are you left with OFECO, [OFC – Oromo Federalist Congress] etc. That too, has people like Jawar, who spent all that time bowing to Isaias.

And the ethnic parties? It is not in their interest, because they are focused on their ward. So Ethiopians must find other ways to think about this. But political parties still should be held accountable. Anybody who says I am a supporter or voter for them should ask them. Since I am not a member of any party, my question is directed to the government.

ON IMPLEMENTATION

My wife asked me, “so who is going to implement what you are saying?” This is a question every Ethiopian must ask themselves. Anybody who calls themselves Ethiopian must ask this question of port ownership and how it can be implemented. Do your homework. What is next will come when it is time.

It’s hard to use two examples–that of Tamrat Negera and Teodros “Teddy” Tsegaye from Reyot stream— and to conclusively assert that there is a resurgence of Ethiopian ultranationalism but on the assumption that three broadcasts in less than 15 days mean something, it may be worth saying a word or two.  Instead of drafting a rebuttal to the wrong choices espoused by Tamrat and Teddy–that would be polemical and redundant– I would like to frame this inside (and put it within context of) the debate that Africans have been having about the very meaning of “nationalism”, in their post-colonial world.

My favorite definition of nationalism and why it is necessary was put forth by Edward Said: “Nationalism resurgent, or even nationalism militant, whether it is the nationalism of the victim or of the victor, is the philosophy of identity made into a collectively organized passion. For those of us just emerging from marginality and persecution, nationalism is a necessary thing: a long deferred and denied identity needs to come out into the open and take its place among other human identities.” Notice that this definition doesn’t say that nationalism is rational; it just says it is a necessary philosophy, particularly for people long marginalized.

When I say Africans have been having this debate, I mean starting from one of Africa’s premiere intellectuals, Nyerere, all the way to Ethiopian and Eritrean intellectuals of the 1970s and 1980s like Melaku Tegegn, Mesfin Araya, Osman Saleh Sabbe and Bereket Habteselasse, and down to all the Westerners who ended up taking the Ethiopian side (Pankhurst, Erlich, Henze) or Eritrean side (Trevaskis, Markakis, Lefort, Pateman) of the debate.  So, not to burst the bubble of Tamrat and Teodros and all their fans, but this is a very old debate and, sadly, the two have added not a single new perspective to it.  Unless attitude counts, in which case they have plenty, of the shock-jock variety.

What we have here, is what we always had: Ethiopian ultra-nationalists definition of nationalism and their dismissal of all other forms. To have nationalism, you must have a nation and, whether they know it or not, they accept the Stalin definition of it: “A nation is a historically constituted, stable community of people, formed on the basis of a common language, territory, economic life, and psychological make-up manifested in a common culture.”  Using this definition, nationalism is something organic that evolves over a long period of time, maybe 3,000 or 4,000 years, and it includes mythologies, chronicles and unified rule.  Very Old Country. In fact, they would argue: very Great Ethiopia, which certainly dates back to Axum civilization, with its port in Adulis, Eritrea.  So not only does this conclusively demonstrate that Ethiopia is a genuine bonafide nation, but this nation included parts, if not all, of Eritrea in its domain and it certainly, most assuredly, absolutely had its own port, with the port people recognizing the authority of the king.

In contrast, they say, what does Eritrea have to counter this? A very artificial identity based on colonial rule (Italian! which included fascists!) and an armed struggle run by Arabs against Ethiopia (identity based on hatred of Ethiopia!)  That is it.  An identity formed by colonialists and fascists, sustained by Ethiopia’s eternal enemies, Arabs, waging war against Ethiopia.  It is artificial and shallow!

Well, ok.  Let’s go back to Mwalimu Nyerere.  As late as 1962, he, too, considered an identity based on territorial map drawn by Europeans as “ethnographical and geographical nonsense”. He taught that it was “impossible to draw a line anywhere on the map of Africa which does not violate the history or future needs of the people.” But guess who, a few years later, in 1964, at the OAU meeting in Cairo,  pushed forward an idea that only Morocco and Somalia did not support: that the African Union should respect the sanctity of colonial borders?  None other than Nyerere.  Why?  Because in the intervening years he had heard from an American missionary telling him Maasai in Kenya should be part of Tanganyika. And from Dr Banda who told him Mozambique should be broken up to Nyasaland, Rhodesia and Swaziland.   Recall that Mozambique had been a Portuguese colony for 400 years and here was somebody telling him as soon as the Portuguese are gone, it should be broken up and its components handed to neighboring countries.  Let’s go back to pre-colonial times!

Yes, yes, yes, you say: but the same OAU recognized Ethiopia’s authority over Eritrea and it never recognized it as a post-colonial state. No, no, no, I say: that was AFTER Ethiopia had abrogated the Federal arrangement with Eritrea and annexed it in 1962, just in time for the OAU resolution.  A Federal arrangement that was only the outcome of the Cold War and a US need for a listening post not too far from the Red Sea.  Otherwise, Eritrea was not the only Italian colony: so was Libya, so was Somalia.  It makes no sense for a country that has been colonized the longest, Eritrea–Italy’s first colony–to be “federated” while the other two former colonies, Libya and Somalia are declared independent states.

And what is this about Arabs supporting the Eritrean revolution?  The United States and Israel, and later on the USSR and Cuba, and Yemen, and East Germany supported Ethiopia longer, and with significantly more materiel and financial and logistical and personnel, than the Arabs support for Eritrea.  The Cubans literally led the war and fought in the Ogaden War and got a statue for it.  Does that mean Ethiopian nationalism is dependent on outside forces?

“Artificial Nationalism”

What Ethiopians consider an insult–artificial nationalism–is actually the rule and not the exception in Africa.  Unlike in Europe and in very few parts of Africa (Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Upper Volta, Burundi, and Rwanda) where the Nation (and thus Nationalism) came before the State, in the rest of Africa, first came the State then the Nation.  So, Eritrea’s form of nationalism is typically African.   It is what some scholars call the State-Nation instead of the Nation State. Even in those few parts of Africa that can claim to have been a nation before the Europeans arrived, it was an overlap and not an identical map: Ashanti, not Ghana; Fulta Jallon not Guinea; Mossi not Upper Volta, Abyssinia not Ethiopia, etc. “In short,” writes Philip D Curtin in Nationalism in Africa “the aspiration to create a state-nation from virtually nothing was stronger than the desire to base new states nations.”  That is: Ghana chose to be Ghana and not Ashanti.   Artificial!

A less judgmental way to call “artificial nationalism” is “territorial nationalism”: first comes the territory, then the awakening–the group consciousness–then the nationalism.  What should matter is not the name or the type but the passion and sentiment it invokes. I don’t want to get into a contest here so I will just say  Eritrean nationalism–“identity made into a collective passion”– is real: the average Eritrean loves his country as much as the average Ethiopian loves his country.  Whether our wellspring is Adulisian civilization, Higi Endaba, Beja Kingdom, Ghedli or, like mine, good ol’ artificial African nationalism, it is a grave error to believe that generations of Eritreans got maimed, died, got exiled because they were tricked by Arabs or by their elite.  It is real.  As real as Ethiopia’s.

And this claim that Eritrea became Eritrea due to the mistakes of others–Menelik, Meles, the Arabs–is a terrible misreading of history, on top of being an insult to generations of Eritreans who labored for it.  Eritrea didn’t hate Ethiopian rulers because they were Ethiopians; Eritrea hated them because they were oppressive rulers.

Pan Africanism

Muwalimu Nyerere was a terrible president but a great teacher and philosopher.  And what he identified in 1962 remains true: “the existence of separate states in Africa is fraught with dangers from imperialist intrigues and of resurgence of colonialism even after the attainment of independence, unless there is unity among them.”  Whether this is done by regional integration, confederation or any other arrangement that the stakeholders approve in a free and fair referendum, what matters is that we think in terms of voluntary convergence.   There are 17 different ways to address Ethiopia’s–and all other landlocked nations–desire for a port, but the approach that Tamrat and Teodros are using (“It is mine and I will have it whether you like it or not”) is a 19th century colonial mindset, which can only invite endless conflict.  It is not fitting a people of a great country who host the headquarters of the African Union and its Pan-African ideals.

In the end, in a big country with people allowed to express themselves perhaps for the first time in their history, a people emerging from an era of marginality and persecution, it should not be very surprising that such a blatantly aggressive viewpoint would be expressed.  But we should not confuse the nuisance with the dangerous.  What these two have to say is a nuisance; it becomes dangerous if Ethiopian policy makers take it seriously, specially at this time when the Isaias Afwerki regime is waging a deliberate campaign to depopulate Eritrea and to make national defense synonymous with conscription and serfdom.  I have my theories why that is and I have shared them with you, but that’s a different story.

On Friday, President Donald Trump signed a proclamation restricting travel from several countries including Eritrea.  If you are looking for some Trump-bashing, this article won’t be about that.  Nor will it attempt to understand why, if the intent is US national security, tourist, student, and business visas (the preferred visa of terrorists) are allowed whereas immigrant visas (never used by terrorists) are not.  The purpose of this article is to show how this will (or won’t) impact Eritreans and, while we are in the neighborhood, Sudanese and Tanzanians. It will attempt to address what the real reasons could possibly be and their likelihood of being addressed.

Scope

For the last year that we have published data, 2018, the United States admitted 894 Eritrean immigrants. Recall that “immigrants” are different from “refugees”: President Trump’s proclamation will NOT impact refugees who are slated to be resettled in the United States. The breakdown of the 894 immigrants is as follows (source):

Immediate relatives: Spouses, parents, and the unmarried children (under age 21) of U.S. citizens (not permanent residents) are classified as immediate relatives.  In 2018, the US admitted 449 Eritreans on the basis of this classification.

Family preference: (a) Unmarried, adult sons and daughters (age 21 or over) of U.S. citizens; (b) spouses and unmarried children (under age 21) of permanent residents; (c) unmarried, adult sons and daughters of permanent residents; (d) married sons and daughters of US citizens; (e) brothers and sisters of adult US citizens fall under the “Family Preference Immigrant Visa” category.  In 2018, the US granted 269 visas on the basis of this classification.  Most of these individuals had waited for years (and years and years) to get this visa.

Employment preference:  A type of visa where a US employer says that my employee (or future employee) has unique skills that can’t be met by a US citizen and jumps hoops to prove it (for example: run an advertisement recruiting for the position.) 39 Eritreans received immigrant visa on the basis of this.

Diversity immigrants: This is the famous “lottery.”  It is called a “diversity visa” because its intent is (was?) to ensure that the United States had individuals from countries with very low representation.   The system rewards those with a high school diploma or its equivalent, are computer literate–the whole application process is electronic–and are able to present biometric data and testimonies from witnesses very fast. In 2018, the US granted 137 “diversity immigrant” visa to Eritreans.

Speaking of “diversity immigrant visa”, for Sudan and Tanzania, this is the only form of immigrant visa that will affect them in the new Trump Proclamation.  In 2018, 1674 Sudanese and 38 Tanzanians were granted Diversity Visa.  Therefore, Sudan is likely to feel the impact of the policy whereas Tanzanians won’t even know it existed.

Special immigrants:  This is an immigrant visa granted to people who don’t fit any of the criteria above but were of special help to the Government of the United States.  In 2018, the US granted a total of zero (0) special immigrant visa to Eritreans.

So, in the end, a total of 894 Eritreans were granted immigrant visas in the whole year.  Numerically, not high.  But from the standpoint of family reunification, the cost of the US decision to suspend granting of immigrant visas to Eritreans will be quite high: painful to many Eritrean families who live separated and whose only hope was to be reunited with their loved ones.

Reason

Because the origin of the Trump Proclamation is a campaign pledge where he said there would be a “total and complete shutdown of Muslims” from entering the United States until the US could “figure out what the hell is going on”, it appears at first glance that the US may have confused Eritrea for a “Muslim majority” country.  But the reasons spelled out for the suspension, in the proclamation, are as follows:

(i) Eritrea does not comply with the established identity-management and information-sharing criteria assessed by the performance metrics. Eritrea does not issue electronic passports or adequately share several types of information, including public-safety and terrorism-related information, that are necessary for the protection of the national security and public safety of the United States. Further, Eritrea is currently subject to several nonimmigrant visa restrictions. Eritrea does not accept return of its nationals subject to final orders of removal from the United States, which further magnifies the challenges of removing its nationals who have entered with immigrant visas. Eritrea has engaged with the United States about its deficiencies, but it also requires significant reforms to its border security, travel-document security, and information-sharing infrastructure. Improvements in these areas will increase its opportunities to come into compliance with the United States Government’s identity-management and information-sharing criteria.

(ii) The entry into the United States of nationals of Eritrea as immigrants, except as Special Immigrants whose eligibility is based on having provided assistance to the United States Government, is hereby suspended.”

Context

1. After 9-11, the US had demanded that countries replace their manual passports with electronic passports.   The deadline countries were given was six months, which was extended (in six-month increments) for years.  For example, Ethiopia took years to transition from manual passport, to a manual passport with a bar code to fully electronic.  It had both for two years: the blue and burgundy passports.  The point is electronic passports are digitized–biometric data is in the visa and the passport–and cannot be forged, whereas manual (because it has manual writing) can.
2. Eritrea does not have a mechanism for reporting stolen or lost passports to Interpol.
3. Eritrea does not accept Eritreans who have been ordered removed (deportation) by the US government.
4. The average overstay rate for people admitted on non-immigrant visas (business or tourist visas) is 1.9%.  For Eritreans, the rate is 24%.

Engagement

The tone presented by the Trump administration does not appear particularly harsh.  The Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is quoted by the Wall Street Journal saying: “These countries for the most part want to be helpful, want to do the right thing.   But for a variety of reasons, they failed to meet those requirements we laid out.”  Many of the requirements are technical in nature, and the sort that can be remedied by a few million here and a few million there from Eritrea’s benefactors (Saudi Arabia, UAE) and those who think “capacity building” is a religion (United Nations.)  But for a government which has made selling of Eritrean passports for political purposes one of its tools for staying in power, it wont be easy to make that choice–considering that, from its standpoint, all this will do is inconvenience about 1,000 Eritreans and their families, many of whom are not the kind that come to the ruling party meetings and pledge money.

From the US standpoint, the other area that has to be revised is the Eritrean government’s long-standing policy against accepting Eritreans ordered for deportation. If that policy is reversed, it will mean a terrible future for those deported out since the Eritrean government has shown a long track record of equating harsh treatment with rehabilitation. Eritreans who were deported from host countries have committed suicide rather than face the savage injustice system in Eritrea.  (See here and here for evidence.)   It would also be one of the most ironic things to happen in politics: officials of the Eritrean government, the same people that the US and the UN had identified as people banned from travel in the 2009 and 2011 sanctions, would now be entrusted and required to enforce travel restrictions and deportation orders of the US meted on Eritrean citizens.

Whether it is the US, Ethiopia, Sudan, or AnyStatistan, States will deal with the Eritrea that we the people tell them, “this is us, and this is our government.”  Rather than trying to change the world, we Eritreans should focus on changing our world: ensure that we no longer have a government as morally and every other wayly as bankrupt as the one we have.

This is a digest of the interview Eri-TV had with President Isaias Afwerki on February 9: the Domestic Issue. The Import Issue (focusing on international affairs) was conducted (well, ok, broadcast) on February 7 and this website may or may not publish it (Uggg probably will, although it is straight from the Isaias Bullshit Generator.)

Given the very low threshold of patience that most Eritreans have with the man who has been their president (without their consent) for 28 years, the first thing we ought to do is list the questions that were not asked, nor answered.  This way, those of you who are looking for reasons to run away can do so with little guilt.

There were no questions about releasing political prisoners.  Or constitutionalism.  Or elections.  Or limiting national service.  Or exodus and refugees.

(Intermission for those with common sense to leave now.  Leaving this space for the rest of us who have a high threshold for pain. To deaden the pain we will add some editorial in brackets.  Embuae.)

Question 1: How about the raise for government employees who did not receive a raise back when university graduates and other civil servants got a raise? 

So, you see, back in 2015, there was a change of currency.  And an announcement that some employees would see a raise of their income from 500 Nakfa per month to 1,800! And, the Nakfa was now ordered by special decree to be equivalent to 1/15th of a US dollar.  [The 500 Nakfa was net pay and the 1,800 was gross pay (from which there would be so many deductions the employee would still net 500: clever, huh?)] President Isaias Afwerki, who is only the president of the country,  has one question: is this really enough?  Can anyone live on 1,800 Nakfa a month when the speculators are selling a barrel of water for 50 Nakfa (5,000 cents), same barrel of water that they bought from the government for 50 cents [The 100% increase being specially offensive to El Presidente: lock up the water trucks! Let the people suffer and they will blame the water salespersons, not me.  I am ONLY the President!]  And they sell a liter of milk for 20 Nakfa when they bought it for 1 Nakfa?  Now, two years ago, I broke down the price of milk and I told you what it should sell for but you were not listening!  Besides, I don’t want to solve an issue, I just want to complain about it: I am only the president!

And these Middle Men selling sheep for 3,000 Nakfa, same sheep they bought from a poor shepherd for 700 Nakfa.  What kind of profit margin is this?  Government salaries: we have set five levels here, with entry level salaries for college graduates at 1,800 Nakfa and, 5 levels later, the entry wage being 4,000.  [Now let me repeat these two words over and over, 1,800, 4,000; 1,800, 4,000;  1,800, 4,000 only to turn around and tell you they mean nothing]. They mean nothing because it all depends on the purchasing power of Nakfa which keeps declining with hundreds of millions of it in circulation?

But why focus on the government employees, huh, asked the government boss.  How about the villagers? What about their purchasing power.  We have no statistics really.  Let me turn this over to our Finance Minister, Mr. Isaias Afwerki.  Thank you, Mr, President.  So it is not just about wages, it is about the State of the Economy.  It is a huge issue.  We are studying it, and we will resolve it by 2021.  [Inshallah Bukra! There is always next year!] Back to you Mr. President.  Thank you Mr. Finance Minister. It is all common sense: don’t believe those who try to tell you economics is hard: since it affects you, the average Eritrean, you should make an effort to understand.   So, we will accelerate this: and the raise will be retroactive to 2018.  Anybody who hasn’t gotten a raise will get it retroactive to 2018. [You can bet your last Nakfa there is a catch: they do this even with payment in arrears to mothers of martyrs so, yes, you won’t get a lump sum.]  Including those who had abandoned their posts and have been pardoned.  This is a matter of meeting a promise [and you know how strongly I feel about promises as you will see in video below!]

Question 2: So, how about housing? How is the government doing in that regard? 

Well, let me direct this to my Cabinet member, the Minister of Housing What’s His Name.   Mr. What’s His Name: Thank you Mr. President.  So this is one area where we have failed catastrophically.  I don’t know how many different ways we can tell you that this is something that was started and failed many times and… (Isaias Afwerki interrupts:ቤት መዕቀሊዩ: ተጀመረ ሓሙስ ሓሙስ ዝብል ማእለያ የብሉን)… yes, thank you Mr. President, that would be the half-finished homes of NNNN, which is a great way to hold them hostage indefinitely.   That is so clever of you, Mr. President.   Sir, since you can’t propose a solution, would you like to describe the problem in all its dimensions. Yes, I would.  Thank you, Minister What’s His Name.  So, what is our capacity?  We have done the assessment.  It is an administrative issue and human resources issue. Do we have the capacity to build doors and frames and drywalls?   We have the gravel and the cement but no electricity.  But solving the housing issue is the priority of our priorities.   But housing needs water, electricity, roads, schools, clinics.   We look forward to a solution in 2021! [Inshallah Bukra! There is always next year!] Meanwhile, how many times and how many different ways must I tell you that we have failed?

Question 3: Well, that’s a downer.  Tell us now about how the new regional alignment will impact our economic development.

Well, this is actually a question that is better directed to our Foreign and Finance Ministers.   Thank you, Mr. President, but we feel more comfortable if you answer it since you engineered the whole peace process and regional realignment.   Thank you, comrades.  Let me a bit nostalgic about Italian-era Eritrea.  Back then we used to grow cotton in Alighidir.  And unlike some stupid countries who just export cotton, no, we had an entire textile factory (Baratello.) We didn’t just export skins and hides: we had shoes factories. But right now, we are just selling crude gold, copper.  Let me reminisce a bit:  we had railroads and cableways. Roads and bridges.  Damn Brits.  We had a glass-making factory.  [Of course I built nothing: I am only the president and have only been in power for 28 years!]  But after the destructive revolutionary war,  an economic war was waged on us in the last 20 years: we had built a cotton gin in Tessenei that they [Weyane] destroyed [in the 98-00 war.] So this will require roads, airports, railroads.  Energy source: the one in Hirgigo barely produces.  We need other sources of energy and what will we pay for it?  Let me ask our Minister of Energy.  It is ok Mr. President, you answer it.  Thank you, comrade.  Will we pay 8 US cents or 24 US cents per Kilowatt hour? Will it be solar, thermal, renewable?  Beyond energy, there is transportation and communication…I see my Ministers of Transportation and Communication are not here.  And beyond that, there is the issue of education.  Let’s talk about that by bringing in our Minister of Education who is also (why not) our Ambassador to Ethiopia, Mr. Semere Russom.  Thank you Mr. President.   So, every year, we produce tens of thousands of high school graduates and less than 10% move on to colleges and universities.  Remember, Mr. President, that time you were reading a speech at Sawa High School Graduation and when you were reading the pass rates you actually thought it was a typo? Good times!

Yes, yes, laughs Mr. President, I remember.  So, we need complete overhaul of our education system (again.)  Now on “investment”: I don’t like that word.  And if you think an investor is someone carrying a Samsonite, we have different definition of the word.   I prefer “wealth creation.”  And when it comes to wealth creation, it doesn’t matter whether the source is foreign or domestic.  We live in a world where neighbors think that the only way to get ahead of us is by creating hurdles for us.  All these people who say, “I had plans but I was denied opportunities”, it is part of the defamatory economic war against us.  And I don’t buy this Wall Street fashion of private sector and public sector.  It is a matter of wealth creation: and a person carrying a Samsonite who calls himself an investor is less valuable to me than the person who is in animal husbandry.  Because the former will soon come complaining about lack of electricity, roads and manpower. [The nerve of that guy! Taking his ideas and money to other countries and helping himself and those other countries!]

Question 4:  From the 11-point plan that you outlined last Independence Day as a roadmap for our national development, which ones are going to be implemented?

You mean which ones we will initiate.  It is one of the 11 or 12-point plans dealing with ports and coastlines.  Massawa the Pearl of The Red Sea?  Massawa is nothing now.  Asab is nothing. [Don’t tell that to the NNNN who vacaction there, though.]  The plan is to rehabilitate, upgrade and expand them.  Beginning with these ports but continuing north and south all over the coastline.  Tio, for example, has 100 million tonne cement producing capacity compared to Gedem’s 30 million.  Potash in Coluli will need infrastructure, water and energy.  The Asab-Ethiopia road needs to be expanded.  It is not capable of accommodating big trucks.  South of Asab to Diga.  The Massawa-Serha-Zalambesa road has to be rebuilt [to transport goods to the Republic of Game Over.]  Beyond that there is the Asmara Ringroad.  Connecting Nefasit to Ksad Eka [connecting to Republic of Game Over] either through or bypassing Asmara [God knows why it is called the Asmara Ringroad if it is bypassing it] and the Mensura-Agordat-Omhajer road (connecting to Sudan/Ethiopia.) For this, we will have partners from the Gulf States, Ethiopia and Sudan.  I know there are people who get stomach upset when we mention cooperation with Ethiopia: it is not their emotions that matter but their capacity to be obstacles.  The plan is to have our energy sources in Asab (30 mega), Massawa (20 mega) with Asmara as a supplement (10 mega).   As for fisheries, I will defer to my Minister of Fisheries, Mr. Ahmed Haj Ali.  Thank you Mr. President.  Right now, our coast is capable of being harvested of 80,000 – 120,000 tonnes of fish.  We are barely fishing no more than 10,000 tonnes.  Thank you Mr President.  PS: When are you releasing me from prison?

Thank you Mr. Minister. For this, above all,  is water, and a reservoir is planned to be constructed in 2021.  [Insallah Bukra.  There is always next year!] We can partner, we can borrow money but above all is the issue of capacity: human resources, machinery, materials… that is our priority.  People! [Except those rotting in prison or refugee camps.]

Question 5: The past era required meeting challenges.  What is your message to our people on preparing for the new era.

Our campaign of Zero Wastage was really not successful in the field of education.  That’s why we need to overhaul the education system.  [Well, sure, we borrow tons of money from the African Development Bank to produce this useless system we created. No,  that’s just Eritrea Digest editorializing: I didn’t really say that, just like I would never say the Biggest Wastage is the hundreds of thousands of Eritrean youth that my policies are forcing them into exodus. Or those wasting their very productive years in jail.]   But the focus should be on Vocational Education.  Yeah, we had the Ma.Mo.S thing but it was small and one can’t say it was a game-changer.  Now we need to focus on it.  Guess what: it is the priority of all our priorities, which I just told you was water, just before I told you it is housing.

This concludes our interview.  If you noticed, they were five hand-selected questions and it took Dear President over 1 hour and 30 minutes to not answer them.  See you whenever we see you when we will read scripted questions, have no follow-up, and listen to non-answers where everything is a priority but nothing really is.   

Background: Accused of coordinating with Ginbot-7 and plotting a coup against the Government of Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia’s General Asamnew was arrested in 2009 and given a life sentence. In the general amnesty initiated by Prime Minister Haile Mariam Desalegn in January 2018, he was released from prison in late February 2018. In the post-Abiy Ahmed Ethiopia, his rank was reinstated (full rank) and he became the Security Chief of the Amhara Region. In June 22, there was a shooting at the government building of Bahir Dar, the capital city of the Amhara region, which was described by the Abiy government as a coup attempt. In the shoot-out, some of the perpetrators were killed on the spot while others, like General Asamnew, were hunted down and killed in remote areas of Amhara Region.

In one of his meetings with Diaspora Ethiopians in Dubai, Abiy Ahmed was asked about the accusations that he killed General Asamnew. There were many ways to answer this question:

1. I do not kill; as Prime Minister, I presided over a State which has exclusive monopoly on use of force, in accordance with law. So the questions should be: was the government justified in killing General Asamnew?

2. I do not wish to answer this question. This would be inappropriate for me to do so as the Committee to Investigate the Incidents of Bahir Dar (assuming there is such a thing) is looking into the matter and its report is not complete.

3-10: any number of combination of 1 and 2.

Instead, this is how he chose to answer it. It was as if he was testing if there is an independent media in Ethiopia. And this is how one media outlet, Ethio-360 addressed it: yes there is!

Eritrean social media is replete with rumors and speculations on what and why exactly Ethiopia has decided to do with its refugee camps hosting tens of thousands of Eritreans, including the underaged.

From our understanding, the following appears to be the case:

1. Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, wants to shut down the refugee camps and present permanent identification to refugees. This would replace the identity card they have now which has to be renewed every six months and doesn’t grant the refugees work permit or opportunity to start a business. Refugees would be able to move freely throughout the country. Given Abiy Ahmed’s closeness to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, some have speculated that he is merely enforcing his friends wishes but this doesn’t appear to be the case since Abiy Ahmed wants to extend the same policy to refugees from South Sudan, Yemen, etc

2. Debretsion Ghebremichael, Tigray Region’s Deputy Administrator, argues that presenting Eritrean refugees a permanent residence status would present Eritrea President Isaias Afwerki with an opportunity to flood Tigray with “refugees” who are actually spies plotting mischief in Tigray, specially in an election year. This is the case because, argues Dr Debretsion, some Eritreans are completely indistinguishable from Tigrayans and security would be impossible to enforce. He argues that a better option would be to grant the refugees work permits, but not residence permits, which would allow them to work and start business, but control their movement.

The two sides are in the midst of negotiations.

Meanwhile, the refugee camp in Afar, Ethiopia’s other region which borders Eritrea, is closed.(*see end of article for important correction!)

3. Isaias Afwerki, Eritrea’s president, has given many and sometimes contradictory views about Eritrean refugees:

(a) They were tricked by the West, which has severe labor shortage, into leaving their countries;
(b) They are all from specific regions of Eritrea;
(c) We should not waste our time talking about them;
(d) They should return to Eritrea, but only after they have accumulated wealth or skill-sets useful to the country

An estimated 300-400 Eritrean refugees, many of whom are accompanied minors, are reportedly flocking to Ethiopia daily. Prior to the signing of the peace agreement with Ethiopia, the Eritrean government had argued one of the “push factors” resulting in Eritrea’s exodus was not the indefinite National Service but the state of no-war no-peace with Ethiopia. The fact that the exodus continues unabated, at the same rate as it was in years prior to the Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship Between Eritrea And Ethiopia-Ethiopia, suggests that that was not a factor at all.

Among the three actors, there doesn’t appear to be a single one incentivizing Eritreans to stay put in Eritrea.

By opening diplomatic doors and legitimizing him as a peace ally, Dr. Abiy Ahmed has decided to empower Isaias Afwerki as he pursues policies detrimental to the Eritrean people.   Such policies include indefinite national service, absence of constitution, thousands of political prisoners, and no reform of the defacto military dictatorship.

In an event commemorating the 45th anniversary of  Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Dr. Debretsion encouraged Eritreans, including members of the Eritrean Defense Forces, to see Tigray as their second home and to not be discouraged by talks of refugee centers closing.

Meanwhile, in countless speeches and interviews, Eritrean president has described those who seek refuge in other countries as a burden that the country is better-off without their presence and has made no policy changes (such as limiting national service) or softened his tone (calling on his people to return to their homeland.)

Wittingly or unwittingly, the cumulative effect of all three stated policies is to make Eritrea the fastest-emptying nation in the world.

* We apologize for the error: the refugee camp in Afar Region has *NOT* been closed, either.  All three camps, two in Tigray and one in Afar are still open.)

Sometime between his first interview focusing on international affairs and the second pinpointing on Eritrea, somebody slipped Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki some truth serum and he couldn’t stop telling us how spectacularly he had failed in the past 28+ years.  It was like an opposition leader had body snatched him: he told us that every sector of Eritrea had failed.  The education system has, at best,  a 75% fail rate: it doesn’t produce employable people; there is no electricity in the country; drinking water is too expensive in the city, not available in villages; there are no industries, even the colonial ones we inherited don’t function; our fishing industry is dead.  As for our ports: “does Massawa, so-called Pearl of the Red Sea  exist? No it does not.  Does Asab exist? No it does not.” One wishes that he had also imbibed of the truth serum when he was discussing the failure rate of his foreign policy in the past 28 years.  Since he didn’t, we will him out.

What has come to define Eritrea’s Foreign Policy is the corruption of a small but heavily misguided ideology inserted into the ruling party’s  PFDJ’s 1994 National Charter back when we were still in our We Defeated Superpowers! mindset: “In order to preserve the peace and harmony we acquired after a long struggle, it is essential that we strive for peace and stability at both regional and global levels, notwithstanding our limited capabilities.” What this has meant is to punch above our weight, which is risky enough, but when you give this total punching authority to Isaias Afwerki, a very tactical-no-strategy man who is heavily (solely?) influenced by spite, then the results could be nothing but disastrous.  Specially since there is no parliament, no private press to conduct assessments or oversight.  There is zero ability to learn from mistakes since the decision-maker is, by definition, all-knowing.   There was no statistical probability that the decisions could be, even by chance, right half the time.

Let’s look at the carnage:

1. South Sudan: Eritrea was involved with South Sudan as early as 1994, when it kicked out Sudan’s ambassador and turned it over to the Sudan People’s Liberation Army(SPLA)– literally a year after Eritrea became an official State.

SPLA was always in a state of tension between those who wanted South Sudan to remain part of reformed Sudan and those who wanted it to be fully independent.  Isaias, a man who has not met an African colonial treaty he hasn’t liked, was for keeping Sudan One.  After the death of SPLA leader John Garang, there was hardly a voice for unity within the movement and in the referendum South Sudan held, the vote for secession was supported by 99% of the people.  You would think this would be enough to humble Isaias: but he is in the same state of mind he was when he refused to join its celebration of right to self determination 9 years ago: bitter.

2. West Sudan & East Sudan: In Darfur Sudan, although Eritrea has no border with West Sudan (“notwithstanding our limited capabilities”), Isaias inserted himself into Sudan’s affairs , mostly as  “Our-Man-On-The-Ground” for Libya and Qatar another State (now an enemy state) that likes to punch above its size, but has a bottomless pit of oil to support its ambitions.

So for years, Isaias dragged Eritrea into the mess, making frequent treks to Libya and Qatar to discuss “bilateral and regional issues” (code for Darfur and Somalia) In the end, proving his years’ of investment into the issue were entirely worthless, the new government of Sudan has kept him at a distance as it attempts to solve its internal affair.   In East Sudan, Isaias Afwerki had what, on the surface, appears to have been a spectacular success: he leveraged his influence over the Beja Congress and the Free Lions–representing the marginalized East Sudan–to get them an agreement for a representative government.  In reality, because he is a very tactical man, all he got (for himself) by forcing the removal of Humed Hamed, is an opportunity to have his own hand-selected Governor of Eastern Sudan State of Kessela, all the more to facilitate contraband economy to and from Eritrea and to look the other way when his new friends in East Sudan were in the human smuggling business. (See report of the Commission of Inquiry on Eritrea.)

But wait: last year’s Revolution in Sudan had its own dynamics which resulted in the very popular Humed Hamed returning to Kassala as Governor.   And, oh, here he is attending the TPLF @45 celebration in Mekele, Tigray: that same organization we keep being told is dead and never coming back.  Spiteful Isaias will now waste a lot of Eritrea’s resources and energy studying this picture and antagonizing the new Sudan government: yes, he is THAT petty.

3. Ethiopia: Isaias Afwerki and his supporters, aka the Diaspora “We Are Him, He Is Us” (or, in Tigrinya, Nehna Nsu, Nsu Nehna (NNNN)) have Faustian agreement: he will demand that they annually and on time pay 2% of their net income and unconditionally support whatever causes strike his Don Quixote mind; in exchange, they will faithfully pay 0.5% of their annual income every other year and get to visit their half-finished homes (teetering on the edge of collapse in the memorable description of Truth Serum Isaias) in Asmara every other year.   Their contributions, plus revenues from Eritrea’s mines, went on to arm and train a group of Ethiopian “resistance fighters” including those from Tigray (TPLM/DMHT), from Oromia (OLF), from Amhara (Gnbot-7), from Ogaden-Somali State (ONLF) and even from Benishangul-Gomez.  Recall that these organizations did not have much in common–some were Federalist, some unionists, some had single focus on their region others on the nation.   Some even expressed the view that Eritrea is part of Ethiopia.  But to Tactician Isaias, that didn’t matter: what mattered (only thing that mattered) was that his spite was satisfied: the Weyane had to be punished.   But what is the outcome now?

Recall that the Tigray People’s Liberation Movement (TPLM/DMHT) had split, with one faction led by Molla Asghedom returning to Tigray during the Hailemariam Desalegn era.  Recall that the last holdout returned after Abiy Ahmed’s highly successful Reconciliation Campaign. Recall that on the eve of Abiy Ahmed’s ascendancy to be Ethiopia’s Premiere that the TPLF was very unpopular even among Tigrayans with its leaders on an apology tour.  Recall that Abiy Ahmed received an exuberant welcome when he visited Mekele. Given Isaias Afwerki’s tactical mindset, the only question was: how will he waste this?  Easy: he and his NNNN went on a “Game Over!”, “you are encircled!”, “the end is near!” chant which pushed not only the people of Tigray to the bosom of the TPLF but, astoundingly, the armed group he had wasted Eritrea’s treasure on, the TPLM, also declared it was joining the TPLF! 

Perhaps things are better with the OLF?  Not really.  All the elders like Dawud Ibsa, Hailu Gonfa are men without portfolio in Abiy’s Oromia State which is the monopoly of his party and the emergent OFC.  The much celebrated General Kemal Gelchu lasted all of six months in the government. How about the Unionists, the Ginbot 7, Arbenoch with their politics of nostalgia of an Ethiopia that never was for most Ethiopians?  They are either out of step with modern Federal Ethiopia or they have been pre-empted by even more uncompromising unionist and are now struggling just to get people to attend their meetings in Amhara, Oromia, Arba Minch.  But they are a registered national party so maybe they will sweep the 2020 elections.   And the Ogaden National Liberation Front?  Well, after their, um, rehabilitation, they have been taught that Ogaden is just one (small) part of Ethiopian Somali State and they should hurry up and think bigger, so now they are grand Ethiopianist, challenging Ginbot-7 in their Greater Ethiopia flag-waving.

4. Somalia: All of the above miscalculations merely bankrupted Eritrea, and are (hopefully) reversible.  But the one that cost Eritrea the most–in terms of irreversible reputation, sanctions, exodus, and a deepening economic hole–is Isaias Afwerki’s adventures and miscalculations in Somalia.  Between the collapse of the Siad Barre regime and up until the UN decided to be serious about Somalia, the country was a free-for-all where everybody was trafficking in arms to support their faction.  This included the United States, Europe, the Gulf States, Ethiopia, Kenya and, although not a neighbor (“notwithstanding our limited capabilities”) Eritrea.  At some point, the UN blew the whistle and said that the international community is going to support the Transitional Federal Government and everybody should line up behind them.  Everybody did: except Eritrea (openly) and its funding sources (most likely Qatar, behind the curtain, our former trusted mediator in our dispute with Djibouti and now our eternal foe.)

At every stage of the fork-on-the-road, Isaias was on the losing side.  When the Islamic Court was defeated by Ethiopia, he was with the Islamic Court.  When the Islamic Court reconstituted itself (in Asmara, no less) as the Alliance for the Reliberation of Somalia (ARS) and then split into two, he was with the losing side (ALS-Asmara.)  When the whole world lined up behind ALS-Djibouti, he dismissed it and said he was for the entire “Somali Resistance” including Al-Shabab (see video below).   When the Transitional Federal Government was established, he mocked it as incapable of having any control over anything but “Villa Somalia.”

Suffice to say that the current Prime Minister of Somalia is the product of ALS-Djibouti, TFG, and calls his office Villa Somalia. And what happened to all the Somali politicians that Isaias wasted Eritrean treasure and reputation on? The ALS-Asmara melted away and the other “Somali resistance” (Al-Shabab) pledged allegiance to Al-Qaeda, blew up Uganda and Kenya, and to this day has made Somalia ungovernable by acts of “resistance”, which everybody in the world calls terror.

After this long, uninterrupted record of miscalculation and terrible judgement, what is next for Isaias Afwerki? Will he humble himself and stay focused on repairing the damage he has caused in Eritrea? No. He still has a magic card with the Djibouti “resistance” in Eritrea.  But the big game is still Ethiopia: as he publicly disclosed in his last TV interview (helpfully translated into English by his Minister of Twitter, Yemane Gebremeskel): he is not going to fold his hands and just watch, hell no.   Notwithstanding our limited capabilities he intends to pick winners-and-losers in Ethiopia, as it prepares for its national election in 2020. He has gotten some pushback from Ethiopian intellectuals and even a diplomat or two. He won’t stop, he can’t stop: so it is only a matter of time before he loses Abiy Ahmed.

Born and raised after the independence of Eritrea in 1991, the youngest Eritrean generation (“nay Hmamey”, which literally means “of my illness/sickness” that’s apparently what they call each other, which I recently heard for the first time), is perhaps the most traumatized generation of all the generations before it. By giving each other the epithet “nay Hmamey,” they are telling each other “you have the same illness, the same pain that I have.” That sickness is their experience, their pain, and their trauma they suffered under the dictatorial regime of Eritrea and their efforts to free themselves from it. This generation, generally those under thirty, while too young to fight in the war with Ethiopia from 1998-2000, nevertheless (beginning in the mid-2000s), was forced into the slavery of “National Service” (NS). The NS was traumatizing not only because of its very harsh conditions but, by the time this generation was sent to the military training center at Sawa, the last high school grade (12th) was decreed to be taught at Sawa. Therefore, the NS began one year earlier for this generation, which meant, instead of going to military service as adults (18+ year olds), sixteen and seventeen year old underage children were forced into military service. The NS, run by unscrupulous officers and trainers, was cruel to these children. The NS recruits would be punished severely (left tied to a tree in the hot desert sun, to mention just one example) for minor infractions such as missing or being late for training due to illness.

Eritrea does not have any published census data, although population counts were conducted routinely, in the last thirty years. Therefore, we do not know what the population of Eritrea is. Various estimates are given ranges from three million to six million. We know there are hundreds of thousands of Eritrean refugees in the Sudan, hundreds of thousands more are also in Ethiopia, thirty to forty thousand in Israel, tens of thousands in the Arab countries in the middle east, and tens of thousands in Europe, North America, Australia and elsewhere around the globe. A quarter of the Eritrean population may have left in the last thirty years alone. Hundreds of thousands had fled their homes mainly from the lowlands beginning in the mid 1960s when the Ethiopian military adopted a scorched earth policy in order to fight the freedom fighters.

It was not surprising therefore that many members of this generation (as many of the generation before them) opted to flee the country instead of living in a militarized society devoid of not only freedom but also of any opportunity for decent life, education, work, and starting a family of their own. Initially, they would abscond from their units and would go back to their homes in the cities and towns or their ancestral villages around the country and hide for weeks, months and even years. Eventually, they sought to leave their country altogether.

Many of these young people managed to reach Libya crossing the Sahara desert from Sudan and attempted to cross the Mediterranean Sea on rickety boats paying thousands of US dollars to human traffickers. And many have drowned in the process. The 2013 tragedy of the boat that capsized and sank near Lampedusa, Italy, took the lives of more than three hundred Eritreans with it. Some were shot dead at the border with Ethiopia or the Sudan. The shoot-to-kill policy of the regime only stopped after the “peace deal” with Ethiopia in 2018. Reportedly, some migrants were shot and killed by Egyptian security services while trying to enter Israel after crossing on foot not only the Sahara desert but the Sinai as well.

The recent news of multiple suicides among Eritrean refugees in Europe was particularly disturbing and saddening precisely because this phenomenon is occurring amongst this youngest generation. This generation, undoubtedly suffers from severe Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). PTSD is a serious condition. “PTSD happens when an individual experiences a horrifying ordeal that involves physical harm or the threat of physical harm. PTSD was first brought to public attention in relation to war veterans [in the United States,] but a variety of traumatic events can cause PTSD including combat exposure, child sexual or physical abuse, terrorist attacks, sexual or physical assault, serious accidents, natural disasters such as earthquake, flood, fire, and tornado ad hurricane.“ Signs of PTSD include flashbacks, nightmares and panic attacks. Some PTSD sufferers resort to substance abuse in an effort to self medicate to alleviate their pain.

Unfortunately, not only has this youngest Eritrean generation been untreated for PTSD but they are also undiagnosed. Therefore, their condition is unrecognized and obviously untreated. Some have killed themselves after reaching their destination in Europe and elsewhere. They commit suicide because of hopelessness when their refugee status is denied or is not approved, and when their station in life becomes unbearable to them. Apparently, the trauma they have suffered weighs heavily upon them.

Previous generations of Eritreans have suffered their own trauma as well which may point to what psychologists call “intergenerational trauma.” The national trauma had begun long before 1991. In the past such trauma was not recognized as PTSD and no treatment was available for those who suffered from it.

What can we do to help? First, we have to tell their story, obviously. Secondly, we need to find them in our communities and encourage and help them to seek medical attention. In America and Europe, conditions such as PTSD are viewed now as mental health issues not as personal problems. Health insurance companies tend to cover costs of medical treatment. The youngest Eritrean generation must therefore seek professional help. In order for that to happen, our communities need to de-stigmatize mental health. Traditionally, we Eritreans looked down on people with mental health problems. We need to understand that these people (especially our youngest generation) did not bring this condition upon themselves. This isn’t VD. This is a serious illness that afflicts our young; and they need our help in order for them to heal themselves and become, once again, a productive member of society.

I hope our medical professionals, including the physician, psychiatrists, and other clinicians will lead this fight to save our young by providing their services. Let’s understand and embrace their pain and let them know that we care. For, their illness (“Hmam”) and their pain is our illness and our pain as well.

Date: March 22nd, 2020
Press Release No. 1.

AN OPEN LETTER TO THE GOVERNMENT OF Eritrea ON THE SPREAD OF COVID-19

Members of the Eritrean Healthcare Professionals Network (EHPN) are writing to inform you of great concern for the pandemic spread of COVID-19 in Eritrea. We are a group of Eritrean healthcare professionals in the diaspora that advocate and promote the health and wellbeing of Eritreans globally. We are writing with the utmost urgency to inform you as well as the people in Eritrea of the need for action now to prevent what could be a catastrophic loss.

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) made the assessment that Corona Virus Disease 19 (COVID-19) triggered by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) COV-2 is characterized as a pandemic. This disease, for which there is currently no therapy and vaccination, can take a serious course of disease in young and old people and can even lead to death. Since the virus can be spread by inhalation through droplet infection, it is necessary to follow stringent hygiene measures (regular and intensive hand washing with soap) as well as avoiding social contacts. This open letter calls on the Government of Eritrea to immediately implement the guidelines and advisory from the WHO and CDC on preventing further spread and deaths due to this highly contagious virus.

The worldwide epidemiological spread of the virus can be tracked daily using data from the John-Hopkins University. It is certain that there is a very high number of unreported cases. The progress of the pandemic so far shows that even countries with good to excellent medical care systems have difficulties in protecting their population and providing them with adequate medical care. The first cases of the disease have been reported on the African continent. As of March 22, 2020, according to the WHO African region, 1117 cases of COVID-19 have been identified in Africa so far with 33 confirmed deaths and 84 recoveries. The number of cases are rapidly increasing. According to the Eritrean Minister of Information the first Eritrean case of COVID-19 has been identified. Per Minister Yemane Gebremeskel’s Twitter post on March 21st ,“The Ministry of Health announced this evening the first confirmed case of a coronavirus patient who arrived at Asmara International Airport from Norway with Fly Dubai at 7:00 am this morning. The 39-year old patient is an Eritrean national with permanent residence in Norway”. This information is extremely concerning.

Due to lack of basic prerequisites for implementing hygiene measures, the challenge of combating the expected pandemic in Eritrea is huge. There is a shortage of water, disinfectants, laboratories that carry out diagnostic tests and medical professionals, including nursing and technical staff. There is also a lack of functioning intensive care units with adequate ventilation equipment needed to properly treat patients. The reality is that many Eritreans will not be able to seek and obtain medical treatment in their homeland or neighboring countries. In short, the Eritrean health system is not adequately prepared for a COVID-19 pandemic.

It is the responsibility and duty of the Eritrean government to inform the population about this pandemic and to take preventive measures to protect them. These measures must especially protect those people who are at higher risk of becoming infected. The government has a duty to educate the public that some population groups are more vulnerable and at considerably higher risk of contracting COVID-19, e.g. elderly or citizens with chronic diseases. In addition, the government must ensure that COVID-19 is not transmitted from person to person through avoidable circumstances, such as public gatherings or when using shared accommodations.

Many Eritrean prisoners who are kept in official and unofficial prisons under inhumane conditions are at high risk of contracting the virus. Many are housed in cramped, overcrowded rooms. Hygienic measures and medical care are not up to critical care standards, therefore increasing a wave of COVID-19 disease in Eritrean prisons would be a disaster that could then infiltrate the whole general population.

The young Eritrean students, who are sent to Sawa to complete the 12th grade, also belong to the high-risk group. The overcrowded living quarters promote further rapid spread of the virus in both Sawa and the surrounding area.

As an organization dedicated to the health and well-being of all Eritreans, EHPN calls on the Government of Eritrea, the Ministry of Health and Ministry of Justice in particular, to take measures which prioritize public health and well-being of all Eritreans. We have particular concern for those who are at high risk: prisoners and high school students in Sawa, as well as all that have underlying health conditions.

The Eritrean Ministry of Health has always been a frontline fighter and in such a time of this, we highly encourage to take a leap of preparedness for prevention to healthcare providers and all Eritrean citizens. Again, we strongly urge the Ministry of health to voice an alarming awareness
of prevention to the public.

As health professionals, we feel it is our obligation and duty to alert and inform you of the current status of the pandemic that has taken place and warn of the potential danger it could cause in Eritrea.

Sincerely,
Eritrean Healthcare Professionals Network (EHPN)

April 2, 2020

Dear Donors,

Eritrean Healthcare Professionals Network (EHPN) is a group of healthcare professionals in the diaspora that advocate and promote the health and wellbeing of Eritreans, with a focus on underprivileged Eritreans globally.

We are a non-profit organization that is raising funds to help Eritreans combat the spread of the current global pandemic, the Novel Coronavirus disease 2019, also known as COVID-19. We are raising funds to go directly to suppliers that can provide to medical staff teams that serve Eritreans. More specifically, we are focused on serving Eritreans in Eritrea by way of supplies delivered to Eritrea, as well as sending supplies to Eritreans in refugee camps located but not limited to those in Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt, and Libya if attainable.

We have been directly contacted by various organizations asking for our support. We will assess and allocate funds and supplies appropriately pending sites that have the greatest need to reach as many people as possible. Our goal is for COVID-19 relief but this may also include other needs to be met that address food and hygiene supplies to Eritreans that are affected by COVID-19.

Due to the urgency in providing relief now, we are starting our fundraising at this time. When it is possible, we will provide documentation of where your efforts helped and updates on what we have accomplished to help support those in need.

We are calling upon your donation to help our Eritrean brothers and sisters in this urgent and critical time to prepare and treat from the impacts of this pandemic.

Thank you for your donation and please share to spread the word!

Sincerely,
EHPN

02 ؆04 ؆2020 م

أعزاءنا†المتبرعين،

الشبكة†الارترية†للتخصصات†الصحية†(EHPN) هي†مجموعة†تضم†عدد†من†أصحاب†التخصصات†الصحية†في†المهجر،†جعلوا

هدفهم†توفير†الرعاية†الصحية†وتعزيز†مفاهيمها†في†المجتمع†الإرتري†مع†إيلاء†أهمية†خاصة†للإرتريين†المحرومين†على†مستوى

العالم†.

نحن†منظمة†تطوعية†غير†ربحية†حاليا†تجمع†الأموال†لمساعدة†الإريتريين†على†مكافحة†انتشار†الوباء†العالمي†الحالي†بسبب†انتشار

فيروس†كورونا†المعروف†باسم†©†COVID-19 ®Æ†نسعى†لجمع†الأموال†للتعامل†بشكل†مباشر†مع†الجهات†المتخصصة†التي†بإمكانها

توفير†الطواقم†الطبية†التي†يمكن†أن†تقدم†خدماتها†للإريتريين،†وحتى†نكون†أكثر†تحديدًا†نحن†حاليا†نركز†على†خدمة†الإريتريين†في

إريتريا†عن†طريق†توفير†الإمدادات†والمعدات†الطبية†التي†يتم†ارسالها†إلى†إريتريا،†بالإضافة†إلى†إرسال†الإمدادات†الطبية†إلى

الإريتريين†في†مخيمات†اللاجئين†على†سبيل†المثال†لا†الحصر†في†إثيوبيا،†السودان،†مصر†وليبيا†إذا†كان†ذلك†ممكنًا†.

تم†الاتصال†بنا†من†قبل†العديد†من†المنظمات†التي†تطلب†دعمنا،†وعليه†نود†أن†نشعركم†بأننا†سنقوم†بتقييم†الطلبات†وتخصيص†الأموال

بشكل†مناسب†وفق†ما†تقضيه†الحاجة†وتسمح†به†مقدرتنا،†صحيح†أن†أولوياتنا†في†هذه†المرحلة†هو†المساعدة†في†احتواء†انتشار†فيروس

كورونا†COVID-19 ولكن†مساعدتنا†قد†تشمل†أيضًا†احتياجات†أخرى†مثل†المواد†الغذائية†ومستلزمات†النظافةÆ

نظرًا†للحاجة†الملحة†لتقديم†الإغاثة†بشكل†عاجل†فقد†بدأنا†في†جمع†الأموال†مباشرةƆوسنقدم†كافة†الوثائق†لتوضيح†أين†وكيف†تم

التصرف†في†هذه†الأموال†حال†الانتهاء†من†المهمةÆ

وعليه†نوجه†ندائنا†للجميع†للتبرع†لمساعدة†إخواننا†وأخواتنا†الإريتريين†في†هذا†الوقت†العاجل†والحاسم†لمساعدتهم†في†مواجهة†وتجاوز

آثار†هذا†الوباء†.

شاكرين†لكم†تبرعكم†نأمل†نشر†هذا†النداء†في†أوسع†نطاقÆ

الشبكة†الارترية†للتخصصات†الصحية

04/02/2020
ክቡራት ወፈይቲ:
ንሕና ኣባላት መርበብ ኤርትራውያን ሰብ ሞያ ጥዕና፡ ኣባላት ናይቲ ንማሕበረ ሰብ ኤርትራውያን ኣብ ውሽጢ ሃገርን ኣብ ስደትን ሞያዊ ድጋፍ ንምብርካት ዝቖመ ዘይሻራዊን ዘይፖለቲካውን ማሕበር ኮይንና፡ ኣብዚ እዋን፡ ነቲ ንዓለምና ኣብ ኣሻቓሊ ኩነት ሸሚምዋ ዘሎ ለበዳ ሕማም ኮቪድ-19 ንምቅላስ፡ ንምሕያል ጥዕናዊ ኣገልግሎት ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ዝውዕል ሓገዝ ኣብ ምእካብ ተጸሚድና ንርከብ።

እዚ ዝግበር ሓገዝ ነቲ ምስ ሕማም ኮቪድ-19 ዝተሓሓዝ ዘድሊ ንዋታውን ሞራላውን ድጋፍ ኣብ ምግባር ዝዓለመ ምኳኑ ክፍለጥ የድሊ። ብተወሳኺ፡ እዚ መደብ፡ ኣብ ኤርትራ ንዝርከብ ህዝብና ጥራይ ዘይኮነ፡ ነቶም ኣብ ፈቐዶ መዓስከራት ስደተኛታት ዝርከቡ ዜጋታትና (ኢትዮጵያ፡ ሱዳን፡ ግብጺ፡ ሊብያን ካልኦት ህጹጽ ሓገዝ ዝጠልቡ ቦታታትን) ንምሕጋዝ ዝውዕል ውን እዩ።

እዚ መርበብ ኤርትራውያን ሰብ ሞያ ጥዕና፡ ኣብ ኣሰራርሕኡ ምስ ኣብ ስደትን ኣብ ሃገርና ኤርትራን ዝርከብ ህዝብና ግሉጽ ትካላዊ ኣገባብ ብዝሓለወ ኣካይዳ ክሰርሕ ድሉው ምዃኑ እንዳሓበርና፡ ንዝግበር ሓገዝ ኣዝዩ ኣገዳስን ግዜ ዘይህብን ምዃኑ ተገንዚብና ንህዝብና ብዘይወዓል ሕደር ክንሕግዝ ንምሕጸን። ህዝብና ንምርዳእ ንዝግበር ሓገዝ፡ መርበብ ኤርትራውያን ሰብ ሞያ ጥዕና፡ ብልቢ የመስግን።

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My people.  Know yourself and know your enemy, and don’t be too squeamish to call your adversary an enemy.

Eritrea, with its loyalty days.  Independence Day is giving way to Martyr’s Day, the sequence appearing to foreshadow Eritrea’s fate: a country independent enough to sacrifice but not sufficiently sovereign to be free: i.e., popular sovereignty, highest expression of sovereignty. Eritrea is one of the few countries in Africa (Burkino Faso, Guyana, Togo & Zimbabwe) which remembers its martyrs AFTER it remembers its independence days, but none with days so close to each other.  So it moves from fireworks to candles, all organized by its single legal party. To celebrate, then remember the price paid for the celebration. Both are real, commemorating the fruition of the quest for self-determination, and the highest price paid for it. But because it is in the very nature and self-interest of the band of misfits ruling over the country, it had to sully both days: uncoupling independence from freedom and pairing martyrdom with dictatorship.  There is only one way to restore their true meaning, a subject we will explore here.

Because this is not the year 2000: it is the year 2020.  The ruling government is not in its honeymoon period, when governments are allowed the benefit of the doubt as they find their legs.  They have been in power for over 29 years now.  How and why is it that they appear to be as entrenched and rigid as ever? This is not an esoteric discussion; it is as fundamental as Sun Tzu and his The Art of War: “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

1. Who Are We?

I fear that not only do we not know our enemy, we don’t even know ourselves.

Let me introduce us to ourselves.  We are a large, diverse swathe of people–cacophonous, untuned, vibrating in different frequencies–but linked (but not united) in one quest: justice. We may not even agree on what justice is; we do know, with some certainty, what injustice is. Injustice is what the People’s Front for Democracy & Justice (PFDJ) practices every day when it comes to individual liberties: the freedom to own your life and your decisions.  In all but name, we are Anti-Injustice Front.  We are the Eritrean Justice Front.  The Front for Popular Sovereignty. We are Yiaklers.   Self, meet yourself.

2.The Enemy

Let me introduce you to the enemy.  The Enemy, well some will say that is a harsh term to use on fellow Eritreans.  Let me help: what would you call a person who doesn’t just tolerate but roots for the enslavement of our people? Someone who shrugs when told about the disappearance, imprisonment of thousands of Eritreans which impacts hundreds of thousands of their loved one?  Someone who looks at hundreds of thousands of refugees forced to exile, some for generations, and describes as economic migrants looking for a better life or strips them of their Eritrean identity and calls them Sudanese, Ethiopians, Senegalese, Somalis?  Someone who reads testimonies of female victims of sexual predators and calls them liars? Someone who looks at the indefinite conscription of someone else’s children and considers it duty—all while exempting their own children from this “duty”?  That is an enemy.  Self, meet the enemy.

You have to define them as such not to hate them but to clarify your goal: it is to defeat them, not to win them over or reconcile with them.  This is because their objective is not to win you over but to defeat you and to obliterate you from the face of Earth.

3. What The Enemy Believes

The Enemy may use a lot of names to confuse and confound you: the Government of Eritrea;  the People’s Front for Democracy & Justice; the  PFDJ; the  YPFDJ; the National Union of Eritrean Youth & Students (NUEYS); the National Union of Eritrean Women (NUEW) and a dozen legitimate-sounding organization.  But, at its core, it is NNNN: Nehna Nsu, Nsu Nehna (He is Us; And We Are Him.) Justice Warriors: Isaias, Isaiasism, Isaiasists (NNNN) are your enemy.  Your enemy is not PFDJ (a dead organization in everything but name); it’s not the “Government of Eritrea” (dead in everything but name): but Isaiasism. And when I call them enemy, I don’t say it so you can hate them, but so you can defeat them and their ideology.  The confused, you can try to win over; but the determined, you must defeat.  You don’t have to fear them; they are afraid of you.  This is why they fight the fight of cowards–never debating, never bringing the accused to court, always stabbing their enemies in the back–because they fear your numbers and your strength.  They fear you because they know your potential can be your kinetic.  You don’t even have to demonize them: the fact that NNNN are psychologically normal people is not surprising at all; it is by now an ancient discovery that Hannah Arendt called the co-existence of normality with evil “the banality of evil.”  The NNNN are loyal to no charter, no constitution, no bylaws, no principles: all they know, all they have ever known, and all they will always know is Isaias Is Right, like the Italian Fascists who said of Mussolini “Il Duce ha sempre ragione”  (The Leader Is Always Right.) 

Thus, holding contradictory statements and opinion, often sequentially and sometimes simultaneously, is the norm.  There is no fear of contradiction posing cognitive dissonance because you own the dispensers of information (media monopoly) and if and when you can’t because it is an international phenomenon (Black Lives Matter…) then you can just argue there are different standards for different times and different places (…but Eritrean Lives Don’t.)

3.1 The Leader is right when he says that his government transformed Eritreans quality of life.  He is right when he said his government failed at everything.

3.2 He is right when he said we will have no relationship with Ethiopia until it vacates sovereign Eritrean lands: and no price is too high to pay for that.  He is right when he said that’s not a priority, the new priority is solidifying the rule of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and no price is too high for that.

3.3 He is right when he said we need the US in our region to stabilize the region.  He is right when he said the US is the primary destabilizer of the region.

3.4 He is right when he said we will be a democratic country with plurality of parties.  He is right when he said there is no room for any political party in Eritrea except PFDJ.

3.5 He was right when he said Eritrea would never, ever withdraw from Badme and Ethiopia would never evict us from it.  He is right when he said Badme is insignificant.

3.6 He was right when he said Eritrea would never, ever allow foreign powers to use our lands, ports, airspace to establish a military base.  He is right when he allowed the UAE to establish a base in Asab for the sake of the new Red Sea security alliance.

3.7 He was right when he said Iran was our ally because Ayatollah Khomeini used to pray for Eritrea.  He was right when he said Qatar is our ally trusted enough to mediate our dispute with Djibouti.  He is right when he agreed with Saudis that Iran is a mortal threat; and he was right when he said Qatar is our eternal enemy that wants to destabilize Eritrea.

3.8 He was right when he said Ethiopia’s Weyane was building white elephant projects (GERD) and criticizing them for their industrial parks.  He is right when he goes to Ethiopia now to praise these same parks and claims they are models for Eritrea.

3.9 He was right to say that we will accept the 1998-99 verdict on our dispute with Yemen awarding Hanish to Yemen.  He is right now when he claims that the verdict was designed to create perpetual enmity.

3.10 He was right to bemoan the absence of political plurality and absence of participation of stakeholders in Somalia and Ethiopia and Sudan and cry for their disenfranchised groups.  He is also right to dismiss stakeholders and disenfranchised in Eritrea.

The Leader Is Always Right.  All he has to say is “Be!” and it is.  Reality is what he says it is: it doesn’t exist independent of his utterances.  A patriot, an ally is so when he is pronounced so; a traitor, a nemesis of the People & The Government is also so when he declares it so.

4. How To Fight To Win

4.1. Identify your enemy: It is Isaias (the man), Isaiasism (the ideology), Isaiasists/NNNN (the cult).  As long as the enemy exists, Eritrea (land + people) and normality won’t.  Normality is generations of Eritreans living in Eritrea.  Right now only the family of Isaias Afwerki (his mother, himself, his children and his grandchildren) feel safe enough to live in Eritrea.
4.2. Identify your goal:  It is to defeat Isaias, Isaiasism and Isaiasists.  It is not to reconcile with it, it is not to co-exist with it, but to prevail over it.
4.3. Identify your strategy: politics is a Team Sport: no solo act works.  Be willing to join: you can’t work alone and complain about lack of results. Be willing to accept united front instead of search for elusive unity.
4.4. Identify our people.  Be real: When you hear the phrase “the Eritrean People”, don’t imagine the Diaspora wearing Isaias T-shirts and wrapping itself in green-yellow-red-blue bandanas and shawls.  Think of Eritreans in refugee camps; Eritreans in prison and their families; families of martyrs trying to eke out a living by running vegetable stands; families of the disappeared; Afar fisherman who can no longer fish; Kunamas uprooted almost completely, and all ORDINARY (hafash) Eritreans who live in terror.
4.5. Be willing to say No:  Forming a “united front” does not mean you embrace causes, individuals, institutions committed to take Eritrea to civil war or to medieval times.
4.6. Accept Organizational Discipline.  This means that if you join an organization, sometimes you will be bound by decisions you don’t fully agree with. But only if they are bound by their charter.
4.7. Embrace institutionalism: And that includes Eritrean institutions of Armed Forces, Courts, Media which have been overtaken by Isaias, Isaiaism, Isaisists.
4.8. Don’t hate the PFDJ (the institution); infiltrate it and take it over.
4.9. If you are forced into conscripted service–civil service, military–ask always whether an order advances Isaiasism or Eritrea and if it is the former sabotage it.
4.10. Isaias/Isaiasism, has had a long uninterrupted record of adventurism and miscalculations–Hanish Islands War, Badme War, Congo War, Sudan Civil War, Somalia Civil War, Djibouti Border War, Yemen Civil War.  So treat with extreme skepticism all calls for new wars camouflaged as defensive wars.  In short, The Leader Is Always Wrong.
4.11. Form allies and alliances with organizations and countries who recognize Isaiasism as a menace.
4.12. Learn your history: there was life before Isaiasism.  There will be life after Isaiaism is defeated.
4.13. Don’t be afraid to aspire to lead and to have the ambition to govern Eritrea: it is your right as a citizen to do so and you don’t need the blessing of Isaiasists for it.
4.14. It is not enough to be against something; you must be for something.  Be always driven by a vision of a self-ruled, free, just, democratic Eritrea at peace with itself and its neighbors.

Independence Day & Martyrs Day have now become nothing more than a Public Relations exercise for Isaiasism.   We can uncouple them from dictatorship and slavery and tie them to other holidays that we can declare–Constitution Day, Republic Day.

But only after we engage and defeat Isaias, Isaisism and Isaiaists.

ህዝበይ። ልቢ በሉ። ገዛእ-ነብሳትኩምን ጸላኢኹምን ፍለጡ። ንተጻይኩም ድማ ከም ጸላኢኹም ንምጥንቋር ስኽፍ ኣይበልኩም። እሙንነትና ንኤርትራ ደጊምና እነረጋግጸለን መዓልታት፡ መዓልቲ ናጽነትን ስዒባ እትመጽእ መዓልቲ ሰማእታትን እየን። እዚ መስርዕ መዓልታት ዕጫ ኤርትራ ከመይ ከምዝኸውን ዝኣመተ ትእምርቲ እዩ ዝመስል፣ ትእምርቲ ናይታ መስዋእቲ ከፊላ ናጽነት ዝተጓናጸፈት፡ ግን ከኣ ክሳዕ ለይተ ሎሚ ህዝባዊ ልዑላውነት ዘየረጋገጸት ሃገርና። ኤርትራ ሓንቲ ካብተን ቡርኪናፋሶ፡ ጉያና፡ ቶጎን ዚምባብወን ዝኣመሰላ ንሰማእታተን ድሕሪ ጽንብል ናጽነተን ዝዝክራ ውሑዳት ሃገራት ኣፍሪቃ እያ። ከም ኤርትራ ገይራ ግን ንጽንብል ናጽነትን ንዝክር ሰማእታትን ኣብ ዝተቐራረባ መዓልታታ እተብዕል ሃገር የላን። በቲ ኣብ ኤርትራ ንበይኑ ዝገዝእ ፖለቲካዊ ውድብ ህግደፍ እናተመርሐት ድማ ካብ ናይ ፈንጠዝያ ትርሺ ናብ ናይ ዝኽሪ ጥዋፍ ከመ ቕጽበት ትሰጋገር። መዓልቲ ናጽነት ንምጽንባል፡ ንዕኡ ዝተኸፍለ ዋጋ ምዝካር ግዲ እዩ። ክልተኡ መዓልታት ናጽነትን ሰማእታትን ቀልዲ ኣይኰነን። ንፍረ ናይቲ ንርእሰ-ውሳነ ዝተኻየደ ገድሊን ንዕኡ ዝተኸፍለ ዋጋን ምጽንባልን ምኽባርን ናይ እማን ነገር እዩ። ባህርያቶም ስለ ዝዀነን ንረብሓኦም ስለ ዘገልግልን ግን፡ እቶም ንኤርትራ ዝገዝኡ ዘለዉ ባንዳ ሰነፋትን ጒራቌንን ንናጽነት ካብ ሓርነት ብምንጻል ንመስዋእትነት ድማ ምስ ድስቡጣነትን ምልክን ብምትእስሳር፡ ነዘን ክቡራት መዓልታት ከርክስወን ነይርዎም። እቲ ሓቀይና ትርጕም ናይዘን ክልተ ዕለታት ንምምላስ ሓደ መንገዲ ጥራይ እዩ ዘሎ። ሓሳብ ኣለኒ፣ ስዓቡኒ።

ዘለናዮ ዓመት፡ ዓመተ-2000 ሓባራዊ መዋእል ኣይኰነን፣ ኣብ 2020 ሓባራዊ መዋእል ኢና ዘሎና። ንኤርትራ ዝገዝእ ዘሎ መንግስቲ ኣብ ከምቲ ንሓደስቲ መንግስታት እግሪ ክሳብ ዝተኽሉ ብኣሻላሻል እናረኣኻን ጌጋኦም ንጽቡቕ እናሃብካን መድሎ ግዜ ዝህብ እዋን ሕጽኖት ኣይኰነን ዝርከብ ዘሎ። እቲ ምንታይሲ ን29 ዓመት ክገዝእ ዝጸንሐ መንግስቲ እዩ። እዚ ንኤርትራ ዝገዝእ ዘሎ ሓይሊ ብኸመይን ስለምንታይን እዩ ከም ወትሩ በትረ ስልጣኑ ድልዱልን ጽኑዕን ኰይኑ ዝርከብ ዘሎ? እዚ መሰረታዊ ዛዕባ፡ ልሂቃን ጥራይ ዝርድእዎ ዝተጠናነገ ጕዳይ ኣይኰነን። ከም ወዮ ሳንጹ ዝበሃል ቺናዊ ኣብቲ “ጥበብ ኲናት” ዝብል መጽሓፉ ዝበሎ፡ “ንገዛእ ነብስኻን ጸላኢኻን እንድሕር ፈሊጥካ፡ ዋላ’ውን ሚእቲ ውግኣት እንተገጠምካ ብዓወትካ ሓንቲ’ኳ ። ገዛእ ነብስኻ ፈሊጥካ ጸላኢኻ እንተዘይፈሊጥካ፡ ንነፍሲ ወከፍ ዓወትካ ዝምጥን ስዕረት ክትጉልበብ ኢኻ። ንገዛእ ነብስኻ ይዅን ንጸላኢኻ እንድሕር ዘይፈሊጥካ ድማ ኣብ ነብሲ ወከፍ ውግእ ካባ ስዕረት ክትጉልበብ ኢኻ።”

1. ንሕና መን ኢና?

ንሕና ይትረፍ ንጸላኢና ንገዛእ ነብስና’ውን ብግቡእ እንፈልጥ ኣይመስለንን። ንሕና መን ኢና? ንሕና ፍቕድና ብዙሕ፡ ኣጠማምታና ዝተፈላለየ፡ ግን ከኣ ዘይተቓነና፡ ብዝተፈላለየ ሞገዳዊ ዋሕዚ እነንበድብድ፡ ዋዕ በሃልቲ፡ እለሻ ፍትሒ ዘተኣሳስረና ኤርትራውያን ኢና። ምናልባት ፍትሒ ብጭቡጥ እንታይ እዩ ንዝብል ሕቶ ኣብ ዝውሃብ ምላሽ ዘይንሰምር ክንከውን ንኽእል ኢና። ኢፍትሓውነት እንታይ ምዃኑ ግን ኣርጢብና እንፈልጦ ነገር እዩ። ኢፍትሓውነትስ ህዝባዊ ግንባር ንዲሞክራስን ፍትሕን ህይወትካ ብሓርነትን ብዝመሰለካን ክትውድብን ክትምድብን ዘኽእለካ ውልቃዊ ሓርነታት ክቕንጥኦ እንከሎ እዩ። ንሕና ኣንጻር ኢፍትሓውነት ዝቘምና ግንባር ኢና። ንሕና ህዝባዊ ግንባር ንፍትሒ ኤርትራ ኢና። ንሕና ግንባር ህዝባዊ ልዑላውነት ኢና። ንሕና ይኣክላውያን ኢና። ንሕና እዚ ኢና።

2. እቲ ጸላኢ

ጸላኢና መን’ዩ? ጸላእትና መን’ዮም? ከላልየኩም ጽን በሉኒ። ንገዛእ ደቂ ሃገርካ ጸላእቲ ኢልካ ምርቛሕስ ከቢድ ፍርዲ ምውራድ’ዶ ኣይከውንን ዝብሉ ኣይክስኣኑን እዮም። እንታይ ማለት ምዃነይ ቅሩብ ከብርህ። ንባርነት ህዝብና ምጽዋር ሓሊፍዎ ብንጥፈት ዝድግፍ ሰብ እንታይ ምበልኩምዎ? ብዛዕባ ንኣማእት ኣሽሓት ስድራቤታት ዝጸሉ ዘይሕጋዊ ሽርበትን ምምቋሕን ኣሽሓት ኤርትራውያን ሰሚዓ ግዲ ከይገበረት መንኩባ ሰቀጥ ‘ተብል ሰብ እንታይ ምበልኩማ? ኣሽሓት ኤርትራውያን ሃገሮም ገዲፎም ናብ ፈቘዶ ሃገራት ክፈልሱ ርእዩ ዝሓሸ መነባብሮ ደልዮም ዝተሰዱ ናይ ‘ቁጠባ ስደኛታት’ እናበለ ዝግዕር ኤርትራዊ፡ መንነቶም ገፊፉ ሱዳናውያን፡ ኢትዮጵያውያን፡ ሰኔጋላውያን፡ ሶማልያውያን ኢሉ ዝረቝሖምን ሰብ እንታይ ምበልክንኦ? ንምስክርነት ግዳያት ጾታዊ ዓመጽ ዝዀና ኤርትራውያን ሰሚዑ ከም ሓሰውቲ ዝጥቅነን ሰብ እንታይ ምሰመኹምዎ? ደቃ ኣብ ዝምሽዎም ቦታ ሓቢኣ ደቂማታ ግን ኣብ ገደብ ዘይብሉ ዕስክርናን ሃገራዊ ኣገልግሎትን ክበልዩ እናረኣየት “ሃገራዊ ግቡኦም እዮም ዝገብሩ ዘለዉ” ትብል መላገጺት እንታይ ምበልኩማ? ከምዚ ዝበሉ ሰባት’ዮም ጸላእትና። ጸላእትና ንፍለጥ! ነዞም ሰባት ከም ጸላእቲ ክንፈልጦም ዘድልየና ስለ ክንጸልኦም ኣይኰነን። እንታይ ደኣ ዕላማና ከነነጽር ምእንቲ’ዩ። ዕላማና ንጸላእትና ናብ መደብና ክንጽንብር ወይስ ምስኦም ክንትዓረቕ ኣይኰነን። ዕላማና ፍጹም ስዩም ከነብሎምን ክንስዕሮምን እዩ። እዚ ዝዀነሉ ምኽንያት፡ ጸላእትና ሓደው ከዕግቡና ንሱ ተተረፈ ድማ ክዕረቝና ኣይኰነን መደቦም። መደቦምሲ፡ ክስዕሩናን ካብ ገጽ ምድሪ ብጥራስ ከጥፍኡናን እዩ። ስለዚ ኢና ድማ ክንስዕሮም ዘድልየና።

3. እቲ ጸላኢ እንታይ’ዩ ዝኣምን

እቲ ጸላኢ ከደናግረና፡ ክዘንበና፡ ክሽሕጠናን ምእንቲ “መንግስቲ ኤርትራ” “ህዝባዊ ግንባር ንዲሞክራስን ፍትሕን” “ህግደፍ” “መንሰያት ህግደፍ” “ሃገራዊ ማሕበር መንእሰያትን ተማሃሮን ኤርትራ” “ሃገራዊ ማሕበር ደቀንስትዮ ኤርትራ”ን ከምኡ ዝበሉ ካልኦት ቁዉም-ነገር ዘለዎም ዝመስሉ ዝተፈላለዩ ውድባዊ ኣስማት ይጥቀም እዩ። እቲ ኣውራ ስም እቲ ጸላኢና ግን ንንንን (ንሕና ንሱ፡ ንሱ ንሕና) እዩ። ዎ ተጋደልቲ ፍትሒ! ኢሳይያስ፡ ኣርድእቲ-ኢሳይያስ፡ ደቂቀ-ኢሳይያስ (ንንንን) ኢሳይያሳውነትን እዮም ጸላእትኹም/ጸላእትኽን። ዎ ተጋደልቲ ፍትሒ! ጸላኢኹም ህግደፍ ኣይኰነን። ህግደፍስ ብዘይካ ስሙ ዝተረፎ ዘይብሉ ዝሞተ ግንባር እዩ። ዎ ተጋደልቲ ፍትሒ! ጸላኢኹም መንግስቲ ኤርትራ ኣይኰነን። መንግስቲ ኤርትራስ እንትርፎ ስም ዝተረፎ ዘይብሉ ኣስካሬን’ዩ። እቲ ጸላኢ ኢሳይያሳውነት እዩ። ንኢሳይያስ፡ ንኣርድእቲ-ኢሳይያስ፡ ንደቂቀ-ኢሳይያስን ኢሳይያሳውነትን ጸላእቲ ክብሎም እንከለኹ ስለ ክትጸልእዎም ኢለ ኣይኰንኩን። ስለ ስዩም ከተብልዎምን ሓሳባቶም ምሒኹም ክትድርብይዎን ኢለ እየ። ነቶም ዝተደናገሩ ወይስ ዘይፈልጡ ኣዕጊብኩም ክትከስብዎም ትኽእሉ ኢኹም። ነቶም ዘንቀዱ ግን ክትስዕርዎም እዩ ዘለኩም። ክትፈርህዎም ኣየድልየኩምን እዩ። ንሳቶም እዮም ዝፈርሕኹም። ብብዝሕኹምን ሓይልኹም ስለ ዝርዕዱ እዮም ከም ጃጀውቲ ዝገጥሙ። ስለ ዝፈርሑ’ዮም ብኽፉት ክትዕ ተማጒቶም ክረትዑ ፍጹም ዘይፍትኑ። ስለ ዝፈርሑ’ዮም ንዝኸሰስዎም ናብ ፍርዲ ዘየቕርቡ። ከም ጃጀውቲ ዝባን ጸላእቶም ተሞኽልዮም ምውጋእ ጥራይ’ዮም ዝኽእሉ። እቲ ዝፈርሕኹም ኣባኹም ኣስኪኡ ዘሎ ተኽእሎ ጋህዲ ክትገብርዎ ከም ትኽእሉ ስለ ዝፈልጡ’ዮም። ንኣርድእቲ-ኢሳይያስ፡ ንደቂቀ-ኢሳይያስ ምስይጣኖም’ውን ኣየድልየኩምን እዩ። ኣርድእቲ-ኢሳይያስ፡ ደቂቀ-ኢሳይያስ ኣምለኽቲ-ኢሳይያስ ኣእምሮኦም ጥዑይ እንተዀነ ዘገርም ኣይኰነን። ሃና ኣረንት ጥዑይ ኣእምሮ ዘለዎም ሰባት ኣግነብናቢ ግፍዒ ክፍጽሙ ከምዝኽእሉ በቲ banality of evil ዝብል ኣምራ ካብ ተስተምህረና መዋእል ኰይኑ እዩ። ንሕና ንሱ፣ ንሱ ንሕና (ንንንን) ዝዀነ ዝእመንሉን ዝቘምሉን ቻርተር፡ ቅዋም፡ ሕግታት፡ መትከላት የብሎምን። እታ እንኮ ቀደም ትዅን ሕጂን መጻእን ዝፈልጡዋ ነገር እንተላ ኢሳይያስ ዝበሎን ዝገብሮን ወትሩ ቅኑዕ ምዃኑ እያ። ከም ወዮም ፋሽስታ ኢጣልያ “ኤል ዱቸ/ እቲ ሓለቃ ወትሩ ቅኑዕ’ዩ” ዝብሉ ዝነበሩ፡ ኣርድእቲ-ኢሳይያስ፡ ደቂቀ-ኢሳይያስ ኣምለኽቲ ኢሳይያስ ድማ ሓለቓኦም ወትሩ ቕኑዕ ምዃኑ እዮም ዝኣምኑ። ስለዚ ድማ ንኣርድእቲ-ኢሳይያስ ንደቂቀ-ኢሳይያስ ንኣምለኽቲ ኢሳይያስ ብተርታ ወይስ ኣብ ሓደ እዋን ተቓራኒ ሓሳባትን መግለጺታትን ምሓዝ ተራ ወግዒ እዩ። ንተቓረንቲ ሓሳባት ኣብ ሓደ እዋን እሙን ኴንካ ምርካብ፡ ምውቓዕ ልቦና ከይፈጥረሎም ኣይፈርሁን እዮም።

3.1 ኣርድእቲን ኣምለኽቲን ኢሳይያስ እቲ ሓለቓኦም ንደረጃ ናብራ ኤርትራውያን ፍጹም ኣመሓዪሸዮ እየ እንተበለ ቅኑዕ እዩ። መንግስቱ ኣብ ብዙሕ መዳያት ልምዓት ፍጹም ከም ዝፈሸለ እንተነግረ እውን ቅኑዕ እዩ።

3.2. ኢሳይያስ ዝተኸፍለ ዋጋ ይከፈል ኢትዮጵያ ካብ ልዑላዊ መሬት ኤርትራ ክሳብ ዘይወጸት ብፍጹም ዝምድና ክህልወና ኣይኰነን እንተበለ ቅኑዕ እዩ። እዚ ጉዳይ ቀዳምነትና ኣይኰነን፡ ዝተኸፍለ ዋጋ ይከፈል ቀዳምነትና መንግስቲ ቀዳማይ ሚኒስተር ኢትይጵያ ዶክተር ኣቢይ ኣሕመድ ክረግእን ክድልድልን እዩ እንተበለ’ውን ቅኑዕ እዩ።

3.3. ዞባና ዞባ ቀርኒ ኣፍሪቃ ክረግእ ምእንቲ ሕቡራት መንግስታት ኣሜሪካ ኣገዳሲት ሓይሊ እያ ኢሉ እንተመጎተ ቕኑዕ እዩ። ሕቡራት መንግስታት ኣሜሪካ ንርግኣት ዞባ ቀርኒ ኣፍሪቃ ኣውራ ዘርጊ እያ እንተበለ እውን ቅኑዕ እዩ።

3.4. ሃገርና ብዙሕነት ሰልፍታት ዘለዋ ዲሞክራስያዊት ሃገር ክትከውን እያ እንተበለ ሰናይ በለ። ያእ! ብዘይካ ንህግደፍ ንኻልእ ፖለቲካዊ ማሕበር ዝኸውን ቦታ የለን እንተበለ’ውን ግርም በለ።

3.5. ኤርትራ ካብ ባድመ ፍጹም ኣይክትወጽን እያ፣ ኢትዮጵያ ድማ ካብ ባድመ ኣይከተልቅቐናን እያ እንተበለ ቕኑዕ በለ። ባድመ ኣገዳሲት ኣይኰነትን እንተበለ’ውን ቅኑዕ በለ።

3.6. ኤርትራ ዝዀነት ትዅን ናይ ባዕዲ ሓይሊ ኣብ መሬታ፡ ወደባታ፡ ክልላዊ ኣየራ ወተሃደራዊ መዓስከር ክትድኩን ኣይክትፈቅድን እያ እንተበለ ቅኑዕ በለ።

3.7. ንስለ ጸጥታ ቀይሕ-ባሕሪ ንሕቡራት ኢማራት ዓረብ ኣብ ዓሰብ መዓስከር እንተሃበ’ውን ቅኑዕ ገበረ። ኣያቶላህ ኾመይኒ ንስለ ዓወት ገድሊ ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ጁምዓ ጁምዓ ዱዓ ይገብር ስለ ዝነበረ ኢራን ናይ ኤርትራ መሓዛ እያ እንተበለ ኣይተጋገየን። ቐጠር ምስ ጅቡቲ ዝነበረና ናይ ዶብ ግጭት መንጎኛ ኰይና ክሳብ ክትዓርቀና እምንቲ ዝዀነት በዓልቲ ውዕለትና እያ እንተበለ ቅኑዕ በለ። ምስ ንግስነት ስዑዲ ዓረብ ኰይኑ ንኢራን ሹት እንተበለን ከም ቀንዲ ጸላኢት እንተጠቀነን’ውን ቕኑዕ ገበረ። ቐጠር ንኤርትራ ንምንዓብ ከይደቀሰት እትሓድር ናይ ጥንቲ ጸላኢት’ያ እንተበለ’ውን ቅኑዕ በለ።

3.8 ኢትዮጲያ ገረድ ዝተባህለ ግድብ ክትሰርሕ ምፍታና ዘይክውንነታዊ ፕሮጀክት ኢዩ፡ እንዱስትርያዊ ፓርክ እውን ዘይከውን ሕልሚ ኢዩ’ ምባሉ ቅኑዕ ኢዩ፡ ተመሊሱ ነቲ ኢንዳስትርያዊ ፓርክ ምንኣድን ‘ኣብነት ንኤርትራ ኢዮም’ ምባልን እውን ቅኑዕ ኢዩ።

3.9 እቲ ናይ 1998 ፡ 1999 ብይን ደሴታት ሓኒሽ ክንቅበል ኢና ምባሉ ቅኑዕ ኢዩ ነይሩ፡ ሕጂ ተመሊሱ እቲ ብይን ‘ኮነ ኢልካ ዘላቒ ግጭት ንምእታው ዝተማህዘ ኢዩ’ ምባሉ ቅኑዕ ኢዩ።

3.10. ኣብ ሶማል ኣብ ሱዳን ወይ ኣብ ኢትዮጵያ ፖለቲካዊ ብዙሕነት የለን፡ ዝተፈላለዩ ሰብ ጉዳይ ኣብ ገዛእ ጉዳዮም ተዋሲኖም ኣለዉ ኢሉ እንተልቀሰን ንስለ ኣብዘን ሃገራት ዝተሃመሹ ጕጅለታት ኣቤት እንተበለን ቅኑዕ እዩ። ንኤርትራውያን ካብ ገዛእ ጕዳዮም እንተገለለን እንተጓነየን እውን ቅኑዕ እዩ።

እቲ መራሒ ወትሩ ቅኑዕ እዩ። ሓደ ነገር ክኸውን “ይዅን” ምባል ጥራይ እዩ ዘድልዮ። ክውንነት እቲ ንሱ ክውን ዝበሎ እዩ። ካልእ ክውንነት የለን። ሓደ ሰብ ሓርበኛ፡ መሓዛ ዝኸውን እቲ መራሒ ሓርበኛ ወይ መሓዛ እንተበሎ እዩ። ሓደ ሰብ ከዳዕ፡ ጸላእ ህዝብን መንግስትን ዝኸውን ድማ እቲ መራሒ ከዳዕን ጸላእ ህዝብን መንግስትን ምስ ዝብሎ እዩ።

4. ንጸላኢ ብኸመይ ንቃለሶ

4.1  ጸላእትኻ ፍለጥ። ጸላእትኻ ኢሳይያስ (እቲ ሰብ)፡ ኢሳይያሳውነት (እቲ ሓሳብ)፣ ኢሳይያሳውያን (ንሕና ንሱ፡ ንሱ ንሕና) እዮም። እዞም ጸላእቲ ክሳብ ዝሃለዉ፡ ኤርትራን (መሬታን ህዝባን) ንቡር ህይወትን ክህልዉ ኣይኰኑን። ንቡር ህይወት ክብል ከለኹ ወለዶታት ኤርትራ ከይተኸላበቱ፡ ከይተመዝመዙ፡ ብምሾትን ብውሕስነትን ኣብ ኤርትራ ክነብሩ ክኽእሉ እንከለዉ እዩ። ኣብዚ ግዜ እዚ፡ ኣብ ኤርትራ ብምሾትን ብውሕስነትን ትነብር ዘላ ስድራ፡ ስድራ ኢሳይያስ ኣፍወርቂ ጥራይ እያ።

4.2  ዕላማኻ ኣለሊ። ዕላማኻ ንኢሳይያስ ንኢሳይያሳውነትን ኣርድእትን ኣምለኽትን ኢሳይያስ ምስዓር እዩ። ዕላማኻ ምስኣቶም ምትዕራቕ ኣይኰነን። ዕላማኻ ምስኣቶም ተጎራቢትካ ምንባር ኣይኰነን። ዕላማኻ ፍጹም ምስዓሮም እዩ።

4.3  ሜላኻን ስትራተጂኻን ኣለሊ። ፖለቲካ ናይ ጋንታ ዕዮ እምበር፡ በይንኻ ዝዕየ ኣይኰነን። ምስ ካልኦት ተቓለስቲ ፍትሒ ተጸንበር። ንበይንኻ እናዓየኻ ውጽኢት ዘይተረኽበ ኢልካ ክትጣራዕ ኣይትኽልን ኢኻ።

4.4 ንህዝብና ፍለጦ፣ ልቢ በል። ህዝቢ ኤርትራ ዝብል ሓረግ ክትሰምዕ እንከለኻ፡ እቶም ኣብ ወጻኢ ሃገራት ኰይኖም ስእሊ ኢሳይያስ ኣፍወርቂ ዘለዎ ማልያ ለቢሶም ባንዴራ ኣብ ኣራእሶም ጠምጢሞም ኣብ ዝባኖም ተጎልቢቦም ዝስለፉ ከይመስሉኻ። ህዝቢ ኤርትራ እቶም ኣብ መዓስከራት ስደተኛታት ዝኽርትቱ ዘለው እልቢ ዘይብሎም ሰባት፣ እቶም ኣብ ቤት ማእሰርቲ ተቐፊዶም ዘለዉ ኤርትራውያንን ስድራቤቶምን፣ እቶም ሓምለ-መምሊ እናሸቀጡ ናብራ ከካውኑ ሕሰሞም ዝጸግቡ ዘለዉ ወለዲ ሰማእታት፣ ስድራ ናይቶም ኣበይ ኣለዉ ዘይብሃሉ ብስርዓት ኢሳይያስ ዝተሸርቡ ዜጋታት፣ እቶም ዓሳ ገፊፎም ከይናበሩ ዝተኸልከሉ ደቂ ብሄረ ዓፈር፣ እቶም ካብ መሬቶም ተበርቊቘም ዝተመዛበሉ ተወለድቲ ብሄረ ዅናማ፣ ኵሉ’ቲ ኣብ ትሕቲ ቐጻሊ ራዕድን ሽበራን ዝነብር ሓፋሽ ህዝብናን እዩ – ህዝቢ ኤርትራ።

4.5  ኣይፋል ንምባል ሓይለ-ፍቓድ ይሃልኻ። ሓባራዊ ግንባር ምምስራት ማለት፡ ነቶም ንኤርትራ ኣብ ኲናት ሕድሕድ ከእትዉ ወይ ድማ ናብ ማእከላይ ዘመን ክመልሱ ዝደልዩ ውልቀሰባትን ትካላትን ማሕበራትን ምሕቋፍ ማለት ኣይኰነን።

4.6  ንውድባዊ ዲሲፕሊን ምእዙዝ ኵን። እዚ ማለት ኣባል ሓደ ንፍትሒ ዝቃለስ ውድብ እንተድኣ ኴንካ ዋላ’ውን ንዘይትሰማምዓሉ ውሳነታት ውድብ ምእዙዝ ምዃን ማለት እዩ። እዚ ክትገብር ግን እቲ ውድብ ብቻርተሩ ዝቕየድ ምስ ዝኸውን ጥራይ እዩ።

4.7  ትካላውነት ተቐበል። እዚ እንኮላይ ነተን ብኢሳይያስን ኢሳይያሳውያንን ተጨውየን ዘለዋ ሃገራውያን ትካላት ምክልኻልን ጸጥታን፡ ኣብያተ-ፍርዲን ማዕከናት ዜናን የጠቓልል።

4.8. ንህግደፍ ከም ውድብ ኣይትጽልኣዮ ወይ ኣይትቀፈፎ። ብዝከኣለካ ሰርስሮን ውረሶን።

4.9 ብግዲ ኣብ ሓይልታት ምክልኻል ኤርትራ ይዅን ኣብ ሲቪላዊ ኣገልግሎት ትዓዪ እንተሊኻ ከተተግብሮ ዝወሃበካ መደብ ንሃገርዶ ወይስ ንኢሳይያስ እዩ ዘገልግል ኢልካ ኵሉ ሳዕ ሕተተ። ንኢሳይያስ ዘገልግል እንተዀይኑ ዓንቅፎ።

4.10. ኢሳይያስ ነዊሕ ናይ ዕንደራን ዂናትን ታሪኽ እዩ ዘለዎ። ኲናት ሓንሽ፡ ኲናት ባድመ፡ ኲናት ኮንጎ፡ ውግእ ሕድሕድ ሱዳን፡ ኲናት ሕድሕድ ሶማልያ፡ ውግእ ዶብ ጅቡቲ፡ ኲናት ሕድሕድ የመን ወዘተ። ስለዚ፡ ዝዀነ ንምክልኻል ሃገር ጉልባብ ገይሩ ንሓድሽ ኲናት ዝጽውዕ ዲስኩራት ብጥርጣረ ተዓዘቦ።

4.11. ንኢሳይያስ ከም ዘርጊ ምስ ዝቘጽራኦ ሃገራትን ውድባትን ኪዳናትን ምሕዝነታትን መስርት።

4.12. ካብ ታሪኽካ ተመሃር። ቅድሚ ኢሳይያስ ህይወት ነይሩ እዩ። ኢሳይያስ ድሕሪ ምስዓሩ ድማ ህይወት ክህሉ እዩ።

4.13. ክትመርሕን ሃገር ከተማሕድርን ሕልሚ ክህልወካ ኣይትፍራሕ። ከም ኤርትራዊ ዜጋ ከምዚ ዝበለ ነገራት ክትሓልምን ክትከውንን መሰልካ እዩ። እዚ ምዃን ካብ ኢሳይያሳውያን ባርኾትን ቅብኣን ትደልየሉ ኣይኰነን።

4.14. ኣንጻር ሓደ ነገር ክትከውን ንበይኑ እኹል ኣይኰነን። ንሓደ ነገር ክትቀውም ኣለካ። ፍትሓዊት፡ ናጻ፡ ብነብሳ እትምሓደር፡ ምስ ነብሳን ጐረባብታን ብሰላም እትነብር ኤርትራ ናይ ምምስራት ራእይ ኵሉ ወትሩ ምንጪ ድሪኺትካ ግበሮ።

ሎሚ፡ መዓልቲ ናጽነትን ሰማእታትን እቲ ቀንዲ ትርጕመንን ርዝነተንን ጠፊኡ ንናይ ኢሳይያስ ጸወታ ህዝባዊ ርክባት ኣብ ምግልጋል እየን ተደሪተን ዘለዋ። ካብ ምልክን ባርነትን ነጺልና ምስ መዓልቲ ቅዋምን መዓልቲ ረፑብሊክ ኤርትራን ጸንቢርና ክብረን ንመልሰሉ እዋን ግድን ክመጽእ እዩ። ንኢሳይያስን ኢሳይያሳውነትን ኢሳይያሳውያንን ስዩም ምስ ኣበልናዮም!

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ምንጪ: ሳልሕ ዩኑስ ብእንግሊዝኛ ዘስፈሮ “In Eritrea, The Leader Is Always Wrong”
ተርጓሚ: ሳሙኤል ኤማሃ

Of the many cultures the Trans-Mereb people of Eritrea and Ethiopia share is disdain for musicians: everybody wants his son to be a doctor, a lawyer or an engineer. And often, musicians live down to this expectation, focusing on being entertainers and flatterers-to-the-rich-and-powerful,  and just helping to deaden the pain of the human condition. But sometimes, and it is rare, you find artists who consider their duty to be spokespersons for the pain of their people—and that was Hachalu Hundessa.

Born and raised in Ambo City to a creative family (Laureate Tsegaye Gebremedhin was his great uncle), Hachalu gravitated to what used to be called “protest songs.” Fluent in Amharic and his native tongue Afaan Oromo, he composed songs that brought the marginalization of his people to the attention of the world.

Ambo City would, of course, become the Protest Capital of Ethiopia (#OromiaProtests) because it produced not only Hachalu but also long-distance runner Feyisa Lelisa, whose crossed-fists at the Rio Olympics brought great publicity to Oromo Protests.

At the very young age of 17, Hachalu was arrested for participating in, and organizing, the Oromo protests. He spent 6 years in jail and, upon his release, he toured Australia and Europe to the Oromo Community, where he sang his famous “Ma’alin Jira?”(about the Oromo who were displaced from places historically associated with them.) “Ma’alin Jira” loosely translates to “where are you?”

After touring Australia and Europe, he traveled to the United States. Given the close relationship between the US and the Ethiopian Government, and the latter’s eagerness to claim that almost everything violated its “anti-terrorism proclamation” (ATP), he was not able to release his album until 2014. When it was, it quickly became a hit on the streaming service, Spotify.

He returned home in 2015, right around the time the Oromo Protests were intensifying. This fueled him to release more protest songs, creating the soundtrack for Oromo Protests,  and the support from the public emboldened him to provide an electrifying performance at the Millenium Hall in 2017. That the-then government of Ethiopia considered him a provocateur earned him even more respect from his fans.

After the change of government in Ethiopia, and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s travel to Asmara following the Eritrea-Ethiopia Peace Agreement, an Eritrean musician performed his song “jira” (which means “we are here”) at the reception:

When President Isaias Afwerki visited Ethiopia and Hachalu performed at the Millenium Hall (the same hall where Isaias beat his chest to chants of “Issu! Issu!”) many expected Hachalu to stick to the script and sing praises to the new prime minister and his guest, and not air his grievances in the presence of a foreign dignitary. But Hachalu sang songs about the continuing oppression of Oromo People and how it cannot continue. To him, as he explained in an interview later, he would be remiss in his duties if he did not do that when presented with the biggest opportunity of his career.

In addition to his role as an activist-musician, he was also a member of the Ethiopian Musicians and Artists Association.

The Association invited to honor him and, speaking in Amharic, he gave the best explanation for why he is a protest singer.   “Artists,” he said, “are by nature kind-hearted…..  No question about it…An artist’s kind-heartedness is not expressed solely in giving charity.  When an artist confronts an oppressive government, and tells it ‘you are an oppressive government’, the artist is not doing it out of some sense of ego or arrogance, but out of kind-heartedness [towards the oppressed].”  It is ironic now that those who support the oppressive regime in Eritrea would want to use him as their icon, when his entire life was dedicated to, and paying the price for, fighting against unjust and oppressive regimes.

His killing has resulted in the arrest of thousands of Ethiopians, including prominent politicians and activists and journalists (including Jawar Mohammed, Bekele Gerba, Lidetu Ayalew, Yilqal Getnet, Eskinder Nega, Hussein Hamza, Eyasped Tesfaye, etc) and the death of hundreds.  The Ethiopian government has accused two individuals of being behind his murder, at the behest of an offshoot of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF-Shane).  It further alleged that they had confessed to their crime, and that a confederate is on the run.

Hachalu is survived by his wife, his three children, his parents and siblings.

His catch-phrase was “Jirtu?!” (“Are you there?”) and the mass protests organized world-wide to denounce his killing appear to be a people saying “Yes, We Are Here!”

Here are a few of his great hits:

And here is a sample of the huge protest the world over from the Oromo Community:

It was a Monday in Asmara: July 9, 2018. Streets had been paraded, coffee mugs delicately held and an agreement signed. A “Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship between Eritrea and Ethiopia“, no less. Not to be mistaken with the “Agreement On Peace, Friendship And Comprehensive Cooperation Between The Federal Democratic Republic Of Ethiopia And The State Of Eritrea” signed in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on September 16 of the same year. Well, fine, go ahead and mistake them: it is the same agreement; it is that the sugar-daddy (Saudi Arabia) wanted some recognition for paying for the wedding.

So, now that it has been two years, and the governments of Eritrea and Ethiopia had told us they can’t bother with formalities and processes and institutions because of the need to go on warp speed to make up for lost time, it is timely I think (isn’t it?) to ask “How’s that working out for you?” (Dr. Phil voice impersonation is optional.)

Roll the tape!

Conscious that the peoples of Ethiopia and Eritrea share close bonds of geography, history, culture, language and religion as well as fundamental common interests;

This was the pre-cursor to what would follow: “We are one people!”, “We were separated by others!”, “We went to war for decades for no reason!” and other useless tropes.  You won’t find such sentimental language in, for example, AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT OF THE FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE STATE OF ERITREA (“ALGIERS AGREEMENT”). This “on geography, history, culture, language and religion” claptrap runs counter to our Ghedli Narrative: whenever Ethiopia’s occupying forces would say “we are one people”, we would say, “no, like all African countries, people on either side of our common border share history, culture, language… but that doesn’t mean the Peoples of Ethiopia and Eritrea are one!”

Recognizing that over the past decades, they were denied the opportunity to build a bright future for their peoples on the basis of their common heritage;

Firstly, refer to above paragraph regarding the sophistry of the claim that Eritrea and Ethiopia have “common heritage.” There is no “common heritage” between the people of Omo in Ethiopia and the people of Sahel, Eritrea. As is the case in every African country whose border was artificially designed by colonial powers, cross-border people have common heritage.  But this doesn’t mean the entire population of the States have common heritage. Constant assertion of this bogus claim undermines the State.   Secondly, notice that the language about opportunity denied is framed in the passive tense “they were denied the opportunity” to absolve the actors of this denial of any accountability. But the pre-peace and post-peace government of Eritrea is the same: Government of Isaias Afwerki. And there is a huge overlap between the pre-peace and post-peace government of Ethiopia: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was part and parcel (the vice chairman of one of the 4 parties that made up the Ethiopian ruling party which, according to him, administered a terrorist state.) He was a member of the Executive Committee of the ruling party coalition.  In fact, the current Prime Minister of Ethiopia was part of the recon team (communications) waging war on Eritreans in the Badme War. So who is to blame? Martians? The Trilateral Commission? The Luminaries?

Determined to close this very costly chapter, which also had a detrimental role in the Horn of Africa, and to make up for lost opportunities and create even bigger golden opportunities for their peoples;

More accurately: to absolve the Signers of the Peace Agreement from any accountability for this chapter; to deny that there was something called the Eritrea Ethiopia Claims Commission which found the governments of Eritrea (presided by Isaias Afwerki) and Ethiopia (with Abiy Ahmed as an executive member of the ruling party coalition) had committed horrific crimes on the citizens of Eritrea and Ethiopia; on crimes that deserve justice, we will just “close this very costly chapter” because it could cost us–“us” being Isaias and Abiy and a long train of horrible people– something very valuable to us: our hold on power, our reputation, our legacy.

The governments of Ethiopia and Eritrea have reached the following joint agreement which reflects the desires and aspirations of their peoples:-

To my knowledge (corrections with evidence welcome), the Ethiopian parliament did not ratify this agreement; and Eritrea has no parliament to speak of and when the Cabinet of Ministers questioned the specifics of the agreement, Isaias Afwerki also shut down the Cabinet. So, a more accurate description is: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Isaias Afwerki have reached the following joint agreement.

1. The state of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea has come to an end. A new era of peace and friendship has been opened.

It has? Well this is news to Mr. Webster and he should know because he wrote a dictionary, which defines the meaning of peace.  There is a relentless state of hostility between the ruling parties of Eritrea and Tigray and their rabid fans, and Tigray  (last time everybody checked) is part and parcel of Ethiopia. The only difference now is that Ethiopia’s Central (“Federal”) Government switched sides and now supports Eritrea but the hostilities–and the winds of war, the threats of war, the pretense of the inevitability of war–continue, unabated.  In short, the logic of war is firmly established in the heads of the supporters of President Isaias Afwerki and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (see also: Kassaye Chemeda) as it has been before the peace agreement.  It is just that the Central Government switched sides.    In most of the rest of the world, a politician colluding with foreign power to defeat a domestic opponent is considered treason but Ethiopian leaders have such a long history of doing that and that’s why everybody shrugs.

2. The two governments will endeavor to forge intimate political, economic, social, cultural and security cooperation that serves and advances the vital interests of their peoples;

And what exactly has this meant, so far, about this intimacy other than that Isaias/Abiy (and family) get to hold hands, put rings on each other’s fingers, stroll boulevards, wear weird customs and go to vacation in Ethiopia and Eritrea? How does this political intimacy manifest itself? Eritrea voted for Kenya to hold the African seat of the Security Council and Ethiopia voted for Djibouti. That intimate? The intimacy to destroy IGAD? The intimacy for Abiy Ahmed to block, stall, frustrate the path that his new friend Isaias Afwerki was on: the path to an international court to be tried for committing crimes against humanity in Eritrea?

The politico-economic ideology of Abiy is Prosperity Theology, consistent with his Protestant creed that “faith, positive speech, and donations to religious causes will increase one’s material wealth.”  He doesn’t much care for the Socialist Icons (Marx, Lenin, Mao) which is just fine, except that one of them is the personal god of Isaias Afwerki.  While there are many leaders in business, sports and other fields who have used the Power of Positive Thinking in their field, there is no evidence that it can be used as an organizing principle in politics, particularly when espoused by someone who appears to have a superficial understanding of philosophy or lacks the courage to test his idea (Addition vs Multiplication) in the Ethiopian political marketplace:

Isaias ideology, to the extent he has one, is Maoism. There is Wikileaks report (Isaias Xedong) of how diligently Isaias consumes any biography of Mao and how passionate he is with his belief that Deng Xiaoping betrayed the principles of Maoism.    In addition to Maoism, Isaias is also a believer of some weird version of Eugenics which goes like this:  when the entire world powers united in denying Eritrea independence after World War II, it was because they feared the Power of Eritreans whose “brains, muscles and courage” were used by Italians to conquer Libya, Somalia and Ethiopia.  As if that is not weird (and historically-illiterate) enough, Isaias doubles down and tells you why Eritreans are such brainiacs, muscular and courageous–and it has to do with where they migrated from: (hint: he is not talking about all Eritreans):

Culturally, the two individuals (NOT the two countries) are perfectly in sync.  Both are fervent believers in “One Ethiopia” and, of late, Isaias has been giving the dog-whistle that all “One Ethiopia” types love: that Eritrea, without Ethiopia, can never be a viable State.  This, of course, was the entire debate of Eritrea-Ethiopia elite, beginning from the 1940s when Ibrahim Sultan and representatives of Ethiopia’s Foreign Ministry were hashing out Eritrea’s viability for Statehood at the UN, and  all the way to the 1980s.  And now, after his 1991 failed-effort to confederate Eritrea with Ethiopia,  after he froze, arrested, disappeared, exiled all his peers with an opposing view,  Isaias has loudly proclaimed that Eritrea, without Ethiopia (or some colonizing power), is not viable.  This is the sweetest melody to the “One Ethiopia” types who pine for the return of Daughter Eritrea to Mother Ethiopia:

3. Transport, trade and communications links between the two countries will resume; diplomatic ties and activities will restart;

This has been a phenomenal success, if you define “transport” as one facilitated by Ethiopian Airlines from Addis Abeba to Asmara (or Sawa.) Otherwise, there is no transport, trade or communication between the two countries.  There is no cross-border transportation between Eritrea and Ethiopia’s border state of Tigray of Afar. The border remains closed.  The “diplomatic ties” are, as they were during the Meles Era in peace time, diplomacy based on personal chemistry of Isaias Afwerki, Abiy Ahmed and their loyalists. It is not institutionalized and there is no Ministry-to-Ministry coordination and agreement of principles.

4. The decision on the boundary between the two countries will be implemented.

Just as Isaias Afwerki had said, during his honeymoon period with former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi,  that Eritrea-Ethiopia relations “transcend borders”, Ethiopia’s new Prime Minister has said that Eritrea-Ethiopia relations transcend borders. The border has been broken with the Love Bridge he said, to the applause of the sentimentalists.  Back when Abiy Ahmed used to have public meetings and took questions from the Ethiopian public, he said in all their meetings, he and Isaias had never once spoken about Badme or demarcation. That is, there is zero constituency for demarcation in Ethiopia– a country with one of the largest internally displaced population due to controversial regional borders. But there is a huge one in Eritrea, but the Eritrean president dismissed (in one of his marathon Eri-TV interviews) that calls for demarcation and calls for cautiousness and demanding institutionalization are advocated by those who want to sows seeds of mistrust between the two countries:

So the issue of demarcation is, as it has always been, just a convenient political football that gets pulled (when they want to blame Weyane for inaction) or pushed (when they want to blame those who demand for it as doubt-casting cynics.)  So, it goes without saying that not only is this issue an item 4 in the Agreement (next to last priority) but it is just a formality to appease those who actually think borders matter or that it should be a minimum requirement after decades of bloody war, no-peace-no-war, tens of thousands dead, hundreds of thousands exiled, and a country in tatters.

5. Both countries will jointly endeavor to ensure regional peace, development and cooperation.

They sure are on an “endeavor”. It is just because both individuals (not countries) believe that the formula for durable peace is to have a unitary state governed by historically dominant political parties and groups,  and that decentralization of any sort is a destabilizer. Unfortunately for them (and us) the demand of people, specially those who come from countries who have diversity in language, culture, religion, the “Unitary State” model does not work, as it requires a totalitarian head of state (like Yogoslavia’s Marshal Tito) to keep it together.

In conclusion, the “peace agreement” remains, unsurprisingly, unimplemented. And it will remain unimplemented because the leaders of the two countries have been very busy solidifying their personal relationships without bothering to consider if their views actually represent the countries they happened to be heads of governments for. It remains, and will remain, unimplemented because they refused to learn from the histories of the two countries and peoples.  It remains, and will remain, unimplemented because there is a long and un-glorious Ethiopian history of allying with a foreign power to defeat a domestic power (called treason in most countries.) It remains, and will remain, unimplemented because the politico-economic systems of both countries are diametrically opposed.  There is a mind-melt between Isaias Afwerki and Abiy Ahmed (some bruh code), but it doesn’t (and can’t) translate into two countries having sustained, complementary, mutually enriching relationship.

And the proof is: Eritreans are still, by the tens of thousands, escaping their country to foreign lands, to escape a predatory government and a decayed economy.  Ethiopia’s stability is getting worse, not better, because Abiy Ahmed has chosen a wrong role model in Isaias Afwerki.

And so, two years later, the Peace Agreement remains without peace dividend for anyone except the two individuals who signed the peace agreement: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Isaias Afwerki.  But the Isaias-Abiy Bruh Agreement is blossoming.  To the detriment of both nations.

We will revisit the subject in September, when we are commemorating the two year anniversary of the Jeddah Agreement and the results will be the same: no results, but plenty of finger pointing for catastrophic failure.